Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate? | Asian American Issues

CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

What moron wrote this article???

"Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions."
First of all, it is Fujian, not Fujien.
Learn your Pinying or use old English name!!! I lived in Fujian for 5 years, and never heard of anyone talking about seperating from China. Same goes for Guangdong, except some Cantonese-Americans who are so ashamed of their Chinese heritage and want to be anything other than Chinese. Manchuria?
What is that? In the Northeast China (historically Manchuria), more than 90% of the population is Han. Furthermore, the Manchus are so assimilated with the Han that they can't even speak their own language (They speak Mandarin, which by the way does not have anything to do with Manchu). Wish Chinese-American can assimilate like Manchu?

"Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China."
And most people (>95%) people in China speak Mandarin.

"Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology."
Han made up 95% of the Chinese population. The rest of the population is divided into 55 ethnic groups. What could these minorities do, even if they all united together?

China's future is bright! And its superpower status is an advantage to you Asian-Americans, don't you think so?

a real zhongguoren
a real zhongguoren
songzidu@yahoo.com Tuesday, October 23, 2001 at 17:29:01 (PDT)

Propoganda,

The current government system will evolve if it is to be effective, and has been evolving since 1911 (sometimes peaceful, sometime not so peaceful). But it should evolve at the pace China need to move it at. Not because some outsiders are saying "You know somethings not right here, change now if you want to join the club" attitude.

All major religon are the same on to this extent. Don't lie, cheat, kill, or steal unnecessarily. In other words they have the same morality and ethnics. Organized religons have different ceremony and may disagree on the rewards and punishment in the "afterlife/reincarnation." But all in all they are the same. That's why religon is just call "theology" or "religous studies" once you get into college. The splinting of groups in a religon falls into "politics" and "economics".

Taiwan/China... That's another can of worms. Another board is already set up for that mess.
AC dropout
Tuesday, October 23, 2001 at 14:49:00 (PDT)

Americans have a tendency to take for granted that democracy is the best form of government. There may well be changing forms of government in the future.

However, in general, I think China is taking steps in the right direction towards more economic freedom that will eventually lead to the beginnings of more personal liberty, if not some form of democracy. The process cannot be rushed or China will risk cataclysmic upheavals and general chaos.

Capitalism and economic freedom do not function like gravity, they do not simply move along perfectly on their own accord. Certain amounts of small, but skillful government intervention are required to help the economy move along smoothly, bureaucrats must change their focus and outlook on economic matters, entrepreneurs must understand the difficulties involved in creating new enterprises and maintaing them.

Capitalism presupposes a decentralization of economic power, spread out amongst the whole population from the lowest poorest consumer to the richest business magnate.

Economics is power and power cannot be given to a child just out its mothers womb. China and its government, and later its people must learn from its own mistakes and only slowly let old ways die and news way rise.

In communism, each part of the economic world moves only at the command of the government. Fear makes communist economic activity move forward, and when the fear is removed by the loss of government strength, people will stop working. In America, we all have our sense of responsibility and understanding that it is in our best interest to work hard and be responsible.

In China, that understanding is not there yet. Give China time and it will blossom economically.

It will be a long time before there is true freedom there.
Xing Da
Monday, October 22, 2001 at 22:29:58 (PDT)

AC Dropout,

Are you sure you have not been brainwashed yourself?

China should not be a carbon copy of the US- it will not work. But, it's Communist system is outdated.

"All major religions" are the same??? What kind of crack do you smoke?

The US should get out of China's affairs. Okay, China should also leave Taiwan alone. Taiwan is not part of China.
Propaganda
Monday, October 22, 2001 at 20:13:26 (PDT)

If USA keeps medaling in China Affairs, it will collapse like USSR of course.

What people don't understand about China, is that solutions to China problems will be developed by China. Not the West.

When China needed a modern system of government it adopted Communism. However, China's communism is not USSR version of communism.

When China need a more effective economy. It adopted its version of a Free Economy not a carbon copy of USA economy.

Politically active AA are the worst for China. I know some may AA that went to China to evangelise at their own risk and preach pro-life. I'm like
1) Catholism and the major Protestant sect are recognize in China. They don't need your grass root version of the Bible. All major religons are the same..
2) China has 10 time the population of the USA. It needs abortion. Imagine if there were 10x the people in the USA competing for your seat at ivy schools, your high paying jobs, your food. Killing further competetion of resource don't look so bad now does it.

Of course AA are just victims of American propoganda like their parent were victims of Asia.

AA fail to realise that they are able to excel in American "Western" Culture because we were raised in it. A Majority asian immigrants to the USA are not able to exceed the social/economic level of their native countries because they don't grasp this culture and spend much of their resources immigrating and acclimating.

Why did America have a Civil War? Why did the FBI hunt down the commies in the USA during the cold war? Why were Black Panther and White Extremsist member in FBI files? To protect the Union.

To believe that different ethnic/religous groups in China have the right to annex out of China. Is an insulant to China's government and what it has tried to achieve since 1911. The intoduction of a modern government more representative of the people with "merotocracy" and the protection of the people from future occurances of the "Open Door Policy"

And for an AA to believe these "atrocities" being commited by China would not be commited by the USA government in a similar situation, is just self evident of government "brainwashing."
AC dropout
Sunday, October 21, 2001 at 19:28:37 (PDT)

This all depends on how it is not being undermined by external forces.

China's relations with its minorities is different from Russia's. Many of these minorities have had some type of contact or vassal relation with the Chinese for thousands of years.

If China becomes more wealthy, expect the younger generation can become more democracy inclined via the Internet. But, again, like I said this all depends on the stability and not being undermined by external forces. Nationalism is gaining a fierce footing with the young Han youth. I can only see two roads for China in the future: 1) a gradual shift to more "democratic" atmospheres as in S. Korea and Taiwan. or 2) a xenophobic and anti-Western one like the ones in Islamic states now. We in the West can help steer it to the first option if we work with the Chinese in a non-confrotational and patronizing, condescending attitude.
An American who wants to see China democratize
Sunday, October 21, 2001 at 19:01:19 (PDT)

Your article demonstrates how little your editors actually understand about China. First of all, China does NOT compare itself to the US. They are very different countries and China understands that. Perhaps, your editors like to compare China to both the US and Soviet Union to make this forum more exciting. Also, seperatist sentiments in Guangdong, Fujian and Manchuria? You got to be kidding, these places are Chinese through and through. China and the US are very different. The US is a young, western nation that was quite imperialistic at times. While China is an ancient civilization, now a multi-ethnic republic with a Han cultural core. It has major problems, but I know it will overcome and become a much more democratic nation by the time it becomes a superpower with equal rights and great participation for all ethnic groups from Han, Mongols, Uighurs, Tibetans, Zhuangs, Dais, Miaos, Koreans, Hui Moslems, Kazakhs, Tajiks, and all.
get real
Sunday, October 21, 2001 at 15:29:36 (PDT)

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