Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate? | Asian American Issues

CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

For those of you who think China will break up, what a joke! Are you not aware of China's economic growth in recent years? The Soviet Union broke up because its economy collapsed and was mired in stagnation. Today, China's economy is the fastest growing in the world and continues to be vibrant at a time when the rest of the world is in recession. There is no hint of any separatist movement among the Han majority. In fact, there was not even any separatist movement among the Han majority when China was weak early in the 20th Century. Now, with China rising, nationalism and pride among all Chinese is rising. The 21st Century will be China's century. There is no question about it. For those of you who disparage China with illogical statements, I wonder if envy and jealousy are getting the better of you.
Realist
Friday, November 09, 2001 at 03:40:56 (PST)

Blueprint of a Federal Republic of China:

Looks a lot like China's present constitution. A lot of meaningless "Citizens shall ... " Compare to the U.S. constitution's "Congress shall not ... "

A constitutions grants rights and restricts privileges of a GOVERNMENT, not of the citizens whom the government is intended to represent. Human rights do not come from government, but are a fundamental part of a human being which may often be violated but may never be taken away. which is apparently something these intellectual scholars fail to understand.
Tang blood and Taiwan soul
Wednesday, November 07, 2001 at 09:31:59 (PST)

In 1994, there was some action by a group of scholars from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and other countries in San Francisco to draw a proposed Constitution for a Federal Republic of China.

The wording of this Constitution is available at:

http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/7288/ fedconn.htm

Blueprint of a Federal Republic of China
Tuesday, November 06, 2001 at 11:04:53 (PST)

I have never been to China but I have been to Malaysia and the Philippines. I would say that any country which only 10% "enjoy" that standrard of living has a long way to go before comparing it to anyone.
Big Mac
Wednesday, October 31, 2001 at 15:22:38 (PST)

Will China possibly split up? it maybe a possibility if CCP lose its grip to the power. CCP is indeed a dynasty just like all the dynasty preceded them. When there are so many poor farmers in rural area vs. 10% rich along the coast, there will be some riots. That has been true for many dynasties. So what's so different this time around? Afflucent Fukien and Guandong don't want their tax money to support Yunnan and other poor provinces while these poor needs Beijing to barely feed them. On top of this, there are civil strife in Western China.
Besides, if the country breaks up, what's a big deal? It's not like world is going to end.
Yo
Tuesday, October 30, 2001 at 19:00:48 (PST)

reality check,

You also forget that most of the separatism going on in Tibet and Xinjiang are coming from abroad (i.e. the exile movement of Dalai Lama based in India and Erkin Alptagin based in Istanbul).

The Tibetan and Uygur youths in China are now more or less not interested politically. Many follow Deng's vision: "To get rich is glorious." But, it is also sad that now with the growing Han nationalism, the minority cultures and language are at a pivotal point and in danger of losing ground. These problems go all the way back to the Ching Dynasty, when 18th cent. AD Manchu Emperor Qianlong used Chinese troops to invade and take over the Turkic Muslim and Tibetan lands.
Rahman Ablut-jiang
Friday, October 26, 2001 at 23:07:26 (PDT)

Amused Korean,

You obviously haven't been to China. Seperatism is only an issue in Xinjiang and Tibet. Not even in minority areas of Qinghai, Yunnan, etc.

And your theory about the Hans seperating into forty nations? You must be dreaming. This will never happen, especially now when people in China are so nationalistic. China is actually becoming more and more united, especially when China's national economy is slowly merging into one market and transportation between China's far flung regions is increasingly becoming very common.
reality check
Thursday, October 25, 2001 at 18:11:29 (PDT)

Never been to China:
I think I will point out in contrast, that we Chinese people have the least democratic tradition in our blood. The reason why democracy is such a failure in Latin America is hauntingly familiar: the average guy on the street has no incentive to trust any institution higher than his own grandmother not to screw him over. People only trust their own families. Not a good basis for building a government based on rule of law and the popular vote.

And I will agree with Amused Korean-American: separatism inside China has absolutely nothing to do with whether people consider themselves members of han min tzu or not. Look at tax remittance figures from Guangdong and Fujian. Provincial governments don't give a rat's ass about Beijing or about helping the whole nation, only about looking out for local interests. That, not squabbles over religion or ancestry, is the hidden engine behind splittism.
Tang blood and Taiwan soul
Thursday, October 25, 2001 at 17:18:40 (PDT)

That rabid guy who calls himself "real zongren" illustrates the Chinese mentality that has succeeded so far in forcibly suppressing dissent. They just don't know how to discuss and debate, only harangue and rant. That kidn of tactic worked fine when a lot of people were starving to death but won't work as expectations and living standards go up. 1 billion angry people jealous of the rich people alon the coast? That sounds like a prescription for disaster to me, mainly because those coastal peoples aren't going to want to give up half their income in taxes to raise the living standard for the poor. I agree that there will be separatist movements, but not by the minorities, by the han majority. They will then subdivide until we end up with about 40 countries the size of Taiwan or Korea. That's the real reason Taiwan has nothing to worry about. Before China can take it over, China itself will have shattered into many pieces, most weaker than Taiwan.
Amused Korean American
Thursday, October 25, 2001 at 06:12:40 (PDT)

I think China will not share the Soviet Union's fate. I think perhaps the US realize that their policy towards China must be different than it was towards the Soviets. But who knows? Bush Admin wants to get rid of the ABM treaty. Is this to start another arms race between superpowers?
BTW, it seems that Chinese posters are less brainwashed than American posters. Funny. This would seem ironic to a person who lives in a democratic free society.
lonely AA
Thursday, October 25, 2001 at 00:03:45 (PDT)

This I can say: Chinese people are the most naturally democratic people of all Asians. It is in their blood and culture to be natural thinkers and self-critics.

But, democracy at this moment cannot function in China. China has a monumental task of feeding 1/4 of this world's population.

Anarchy would reign in as the Latin and African nations have had bad experiences with democracies and full markets for over a century.

China is only now beginning to get away from Third World. Some of its populace still live in conditions that would seem semi-Third World.

What we all need its patience to see what happens in the future.
Never been to China
Wednesday, October 24, 2001 at 23:20:53 (PDT)

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