Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate? | Asian American Issues

CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

We are not comparing like with like. The USSR was very much a diverse mixture of ethnicities, but China despite its large minority population is relatively monolithic in cultural terms. Imperial Russia expanded in a manner such that the various regions -- like Central Asia and the Caucasus -- didn't become heavily Russified. Simply put, Russia didn't have a juggernaut culture as imperial China did, even though its military might was far greater. At the height of the USSR, ethnic Russians were less than half the population, and they weren't even the most advanced group. Russian dominance of the Soviet system was stronger than the Serbs' dominance of Communist Yugoslavia, but still not complete enough to overcome the centrifugal forces.

China won't split like the USSR because the Han majority is so overwhelming. Even in Tibet and Xinjiang, Hans dominate the cities and large towns. They basically run the economy. Whether they like it or not, Tibetans and Uigurs have become permanently strapped to the Chinese world, at least to some degree.

There's still a possibility that China will implode from internal instability and experience a period of political decentralization. But even if that happens, demographic strength alone will make it relatively easy for a viable government to bring the country back together.

In fact, population pressure may cause areas outside China to become Sinicized as well. Who knows? In the next 50 years, there might even be separatism to ADD territory to mainland China -- like northern Myanmar and the Russian Far East.

Another Realist
Thursday, November 15, 2001 at 21:51:20 (PST)

ka,

There are white extremist and the black Islamic Nation that want to carve up the USA in smaller nations, to have ethnically pure USA. Last I checked they are not too crebible in the USA. What makes any of the minority groups in China seeking to destablize the Union anymore crediable?

It doesn't matter is the seperatist is a non-violent pagan like Ghandi or the Dali Lama. A nation has the right to preserve the union if it chooses to do so. The UK had every right to shoot Ghandi if they wanted to when he was trying to free India. But they choose not to.

I'm sure there is a reporter in China writing articles about the "paper tiger" USA is supressing the KKK and the blacks in the USA.

"extreme nationalism, extreme patriotism, is by definition jingoism--it is by it's very nature fascism."

Have you been watching the news lately. USA War on Terror. US Flags on cars in windows. Does that mean the USA is a fascist country also.

Tang blood and Taiwan soul,

Peking dialect - "Guan Yu" was the dialect used for official business long before Dr. Sun came along. During Dr. Sun movement they had a vote to choose the new official dialect. Mandarin won. Rumor has it Cantonese was run up.

Corporal Punishment is the way in Asia. It still is in Taiwan, China, Singapore and so on. Teacher's can wack away as they see fit in all of Asia.

The KMT when they arrived in Taiwan is not going to learn Japanese and keep the Japanese infrastructure after '49. And I doubt they have the resources to start schools in Taiwanese.

What's with your ignorance of politics and economy. Economy is independent of the government structure. It doesn't matter if it is a Democracy/Communist/Socialist governement are making economic policies for a country. As long as they are sound policy the Economy will do well. Japan was/is the most sucessful communist/socialist country. But no ever places Japan's economic sucess on its political structure.

AC dropout
Thursday, November 15, 2001 at 14:11:55 (PST)

Hey everyone, Without the Communist Party, There Would Be No New China, let's all sing in unison!

"China for 5,000 years had no common dialect, and at no time did it fall apart."
warring states period? Eastern Turkestan? rebellions coming out of the south?

"Sun knew that, and therefore implemented a common dialect not to prevent separatism, but to make life more practical for everyone."
This fails to address my point, which, in simplified language, since of course I am an idiot and you're the smart one here, "Why ... Peking dialect ...?"
Tang blood and Taiwan soul
Tuesday, November 13, 2001 at 09:54:39 (PST)

To ka, yeah, there is no separatist movement among the Han. What is laughable is your assertion to the contrary. You have no clue about China, obviously. Your quotes on Marxism is pathetic, because it shows how backward you are regarding your understanding of today's China, which is more capitalistic than much of Asia. As for you accusaionts, no where have I demeaned other ethnic minorities in China. You are a liar if you accuse me of this. My response simply addressed the statement someone made about separatist movements among the Han. I fully support treating ethnic minorities in China equally. So, to be frank, your long-winded statement makes no sense whatsoever. Quick question to you: you're a little bit jealous of China, right? Pathetic.

To Taiwan Soul, you are an idiot. Sun Yatsen did that to make life more practical and easy. China for 5,000 years had no common dialect, and at no time did it fall apart. Sun knew that, and therefore implemented a common dialect not to prevent separatism, but to make life more practical for everyone. The first Emperor of China took care of the separatist issue back in 200 BC by forming a common written language. Are you trying to rewrite history. Taiwan Soul, regarding your diatribe, frankly, you should focus your energies on making sure English as an official language in the U.S. does not pass. As for the GDP stats, look at the pictures of China 5 years ago versus the ones taken today. Put another way, have you been to China? If you have done either of these, it will be obvious to you that the official stats UNDERSTATE the economic growth in China. Therefore, give it up. You should be ashamed of yourself for your China-bashing.
Realist
Tuesday, November 13, 2001 at 02:17:38 (PST)

Blueprint of a Federal Republic of China,

Not to be rude. By why the F*** is it in English. It has to be in Simplified Chinese if anyone in China going to read it.

And if it is wants to be preceive as a credible movement. Someone should spend $70.00 and get it a real URL instead of geocities.

Since a number of people have not been to China in this disscussion. Perhaps we can discuss if USA will share USSR fate since we are now fighting the Nemesis that was a key factor to USSR disintergration, Afghanistan. I mean at least we would be better informad for that discussion.

AC dropout
Friday, November 09, 2001 at 13:07:29 (PST)

Realist--

I agree that China will not fall the way of Russia. But your statement that there are no separatist movement among the Han majority is laughable. The Russians can say the same thing--there are no separatists amongst the ethnically slavic Russian majority--Chechens are not "real" Russians. (Like Manchurians and Hmong and Tibetans are not "real" Chinese.) I think you should rethink about what it means to be "chinese." It has always been Chinese communist ideal to be an international, non-exclusivist, non-essentialist, non-racist movement. Perhaps you have read the communist manifeso, "workers of the world unite?" When your "chinese" pride is based on your ethnic identity, it is all the more reasons that the many numerous ethnic minorities in China would feel alienated and desire independence-i.e.Tibet.

extreme nationalism, extreme patriotism, is by definition jingoism--it is by it's very nature fascism.

As some have a vision of the Han leading the way for all other ethnic groups in China, there were another group that had this very same "noble" ambition. Nazi Germans invisioned a world where the benevolent, smarter Aryan germans would lead Europe to new heights. One should not jettison one's love of his common neighbors and friends, because his love for his own people does not allow true love and true respect for others.

If your enemies demean you, disrepect you, show them your vision of your future. If what you believe and feel is truly superior, others will follow. However, if you continue to base your self-identity by delusion of personal superiority, you won't have too many friends outside your small circle of friends.
ka
Friday, November 09, 2001 at 12:39:31 (PST)

Realist:
No hint of separatism early in the 20th century? Then why was Sun Yat-sen so afraid to suggest any other than some variation of Peking dialect as the official language for the Republic of China? Why were arrogant teachers from the mainland slapping around Taiwanese kids in schools ever since '49 for not talking in that same Peking dialect?

Oh yeah, didn't China's GDP figures for the year 2000 come out on January 1st, 2001? But I guess we should trust it, cuz we know communist nations have the edge on capitalist ones in the production of statistics.
Tang blood and Taiwan soul
Friday, November 09, 2001 at 10:38:36 (PST)

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