CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

For all of you who are spending a lot of time arguing back and forth about which Chinese group is better than the other, you are idiots. It is people like you who make Chinese weak. All non-Chinese who read your remarks probably delight in the fact that Chinese love to fight with each other. All of you, stop it. Chinese need to unite together. Cantonese are great people and are part of the Chinese people. Fujianese are great people who are part of the Chinese people. People who disparage particular Chinese groups are idiots, racists and should be viewed as traitors.
Realist
   Friday, December 14, 2001 at 02:29:16 (PST)
This argument should belong in another thread, but I have to add my part. To the shrewd Fukienese: If it wasn't for the older generation Cantonese paving the way for other Chinese, the USA today probably would not allow Asians to come here and take advantage of all the privileges they enjoy. Read the history books and you will find we (Cantonese-Chinese) were the only Asian group that dared challenge California and early United States injust and racist legislations against the early Asian immigrants. Oftentimes, these cases ended up in the Supreme Court. Back then, we were all still "aliens ineligible for citizenship," even if we were born in the United States of America!!! But, we Canto-Chinese fought it off and reasoned with the American public the injustice of this.
another 3rd generation ABC
   Saturday, December 08, 2001 at 13:56:29 (PST)
It is a good thing uninformed people like Shrewd Fujianese are overseas and don't have anything to do with real Chinese people, unfortunately that means we have to deal with them.

By the way, Hakka people ARE Chinese. This is recognized by the government of China - Hakka are not a national minority but members of the Han race. Too bad you are just some uninformed guy posting on a web board rather than an actual holder of facts. Just cuz we didn't crush our women's feet to make them smaller like your sorry ancestors doesn't make us barbarians. Hey ever tried getting San Bai Tang Shi to rhyme in your Fujian dialect?

Don't tell me Hakka people are not Chinese.
T.H. Lien
   Thursday, December 06, 2001 at 12:17:13 (PST)
shrewd Fujianese,

Many of your people are still coming in boats illegally. They work and toil in conditions I would not like to share with others.

Let's not rock the boat. Our end is fine over here. Learn some etiquette.
3rd gen. Chinese-American
   Wednesday, December 05, 2001 at 18:05:25 (PST)
why do you hate chinese people SHREWED FUJINESE when you are chinese yourself. Do you hate the whole world because you are prejudiced or are you a racist. You remind me of british people they hate irish people because they are irish.
eat my
   Wednesday, December 05, 2001 at 10:40:23 (PST)


from chinese american


how are tang chinese losers or cowards or lack ambition if they came to america first back in 1850's. Your type were still in the rice fields in china. Why do you hate cantonese people you white washed punk.

The Tang Chinese were fighting among themselves in the 19th century. Do you not know the freaking history of your peoples? There was a conflict between the Cantonese and the barbaric Hakkas in the Guangdong province, which led to a famine causing a mass migration of Tangs to the New World. The Tangs are probably the most divisive of all the Chinese, so many different groups who dislike each other with no good intentions, and because each think they are far more superior than the other. Now that these groups have learned to live with each other, they seek other groups like the Fujianese to blame for their shortcomings.


from keep it real

When was the last time you been to Hong Kong that place looks better than mainland china you punk.

When was the last time you realized that Hong Kong was a colony established by the British???? If it wasn't for the Brits, where would your swampy Hong Kong be today? Opium Crackheads like yourself need to grow up!!!


Shrewd Fujianese
   Wednesday, December 05, 2001 at 10:23:55 (PST)

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