CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

China will soon be more like Taiwan and South Korea-quite democratic, prosperous, and advanced. Think about it. Taiwan and South Korea used to be just like China(30 yrs ago)-oppressive government, poor, lack of freedom. But as they progress economically, social and political freedom followed. China will just be like them in 2 or 3 decades- more open, free, prosperous, progressive. China will no doubt be partly Westernized just like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and other parts of Asia due to the trend that many young Chinese crave for Western pop culture.

Being partly Westernized will be good for China. China simply need to learn how to progress like the West. That day will come. Maybe it already has.


China will be strong again.
   Wednesday, January 16, 2002 at 16:47:50 (PST)
Heeren, you have no clue what you are talking about. Xinjiang, Tibet, the southwest, and Manchuria have been part of China for centuries. You are an idiot!
Realist
   Tuesday, January 15, 2002 at 05:10:38 (PST)
Heeren,

Why make the distinction at that last dynasty. Why not start at the first dynasty. Or a warring period where China was seperated all together. Or throw a dart at a chart number 1 to 5000, and what ever number you get, just go that year of recorded chinese history and use that map as referrence.

Suggestions like that just shows how little you know about China.
AC dropout
   Monday, January 14, 2002 at 18:45:09 (PST)
If anything, the U.S. is more likely to be split up than China.

Michael H. Hart, in his book "A View from the Year 3000", predicts the dissolution of the United States during the late 21st Century due to racial factors. Michael Hart favorably compares the historical unity in China to Europe, India, and Africa.

L.A. in perhaps America's most ethnically diverse city, yet the neighborhoods seem to be more balkanized than ever. An article in the Los Angeles Times last year demonstrated the rate of racial intermarriage is lower than in other parts of the state due to one's ability to live in neighborhoods separate from other ethnic groups.

Although we Americans have been trained to say "United We Stand" and to believe that the American Civil War was morally right to prevent secession, in reality, the right to independence and secession are very democratic concepts. If China or the U.S. must split up, so much the better for the oppressed minority group.

P. Tong
   Saturday, January 12, 2002 at 20:51:22 (PST)
Shrewd Fujianese,

The famous uncle seven in NYC Chinatown once said, "Problems of the old world should remain in the old world. We Chinese have new problems in the New World"
AC dropout
   Thursday, January 03, 2002 at 21:56:04 (PST)
For those of you who are saying who the chinese are, here's what I think, Exclude Xinjiang , Tibet, Manchuria, and south west provinces, which were conquered by the absent minded manchu's after they ceized the chinese governemt. Everything else is chinese.
Heeren
   Tuesday, December 18, 2001 at 02:36:21 (PST)

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