CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

An American of Chinese Descent,

"In the U.S, the motive for staying united is different. It is the duty of a U.S. citizen to defend the Constitution"

I have no idea how you've come to this conclusion. But there are interest groups in the USA that tearing apart the US Constitution all the time. Constitutional Amendments, Supreme Court Ruling, are just some of the vehicles use to tear it apart from its original vision.

I'm in NYC right now. Probably the most policed city in the State of Union. Civil rights are resticted here more than in Beijing. Don't go there, Don't park here, Police on every major vien in the city. I'm not saying that it's a Nazi regime here.

I really think you should travel more or study more, so that you will understand all large organizations will behave more or less in a similar manner to ensure that the citizen in the country will pay taxes, thus ensuring the viability of the government within the organization.

Thats what i think,

Good point I agree China has seen the follies of other nation rapid changes in government structure (i.e. Taiwan, USSR), even though, the reforms were for a more democratic gov. they could not ensure the social stability or mananage the change properly.
AC Dropout
   Tuesday, February 19, 2002 at 12:57:01 (PST)
The Soviet Union fell upart because of Garbachev and his rapid changes in goverment. People of Russia weren't ready for such change, so they thought oh goody we are free lets make a Democratic government. They had no idea how the new government would work, how it would effect their lives, and they certainly didnt know that the new government was worse than the USSR.
What i am trying to say is that, if China won't jump in to Democracy, won't rush in to it, but would take it slow, and make a smart decision, they will become a Super Power
Thats what i think
golova888@yahoo.com    Monday, February 18, 2002 at 22:36:23 (PST)
It does not appear that the Communist Party in China is in any danger of losing control. China will remain "united" under the gun of communism.

Look at the former country of Yugoslavia when iron fisted communist rule ended. And Gorbachov(spelling?) opened the information flood gates and no one could stop it. The rest is history.

In the U.S, the motive for staying united is different. It is the duty of a U.S. citizen to defend the Constitution. This is the common bond between people who may belong to a different political party, race or whatever.


An American of Chinese Descent
   Wednesday, January 23, 2002 at 13:32:20 (PST)

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