CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

HK Superstar--you know it! ,

Just to tell you.. you may already know but... these hongkong superstars (cecilia cheung, kelly chen louis koo) are all from shanghai and northern areas. That's why they are so sexy and beautiful + tall. And kung fu is a disgrace to the more rational confucianism philosophies.
shanghai lover
   Monday, May 13, 2002 at 00:54:54 (PDT)
CAC:

Sure. Come by my place at 4:20pm. Actually, I don't do dope. Hello Kitty is my Anti-Drug. She inspires me to be the best I can be. It doesn't hurt to have a wildly energetic mind at times, too. Especially after getting a high from a balls to the walls workout at the gym.

Southern Chinese:

Actually, I am Teochew, but hardly know the language and culture (common for overseas Teochew, I guess). I don't know many Teochew's in the U.S., although I suppose there must be many in NYC and LA, and maybe SF. Every now and then I hear people like you talk about Hakkas and Teochews. It makes me very curious. Aside from guys like Yew and Shing, what makes you think Teochews and Hakkas produce great leaders and bring Southern Chinese culture to a great level?

"HK Superstar", aka AM of many faces, many names, aka...
   Sunday, May 12, 2002 at 15:37:59 (PDT)
HK Superstar,

You should share some of the dope you're on.
CAC
   Friday, May 10, 2002 at 14:40:17 (PDT)
HK Superstar,

Li Kai Shing is a Teochew.

Lee Kuan Yew is a Hakka.

Did u ever wonder if the Teochews and the Hakkas are the ones who bring Southern Chinese culture to a powerful level, and not the Cantonese?

I have to say that the Cantonese are more clever and shrewd, but they are not as AMBITIOUS and COURAGEOUS as the Hakkas or Teochews.

Many of the great and poweful leaders of Southern China were not Cantonese but were either Hakka or Teochew. Some people say the Hakka and the Teochew were the same people in one point in time but they eventually split and settled into different regions of the South. Their thirst for power, either through wealth or politics come from the fact that these people were once bullied by their neighbors. The Hakkas were once forced around by the Cantonese and the Teochews were pushed around by the Fujianese.
Southern Chinese
   Friday, May 10, 2002 at 13:48:20 (PDT)
Gradual change works for China given its enormous size and diverse population. Perhaps if we're lucky, it'll look like HK in the future...
A.
   Friday, May 10, 2002 at 13:10:11 (PDT)

NEWEST COMMENTS | EARLIER COMMENTS