CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

WOW!,

love the neo-classic translation.

Socrates
   Tuesday, May 21, 2002 at 23:44:34 (PDT)
To gzus:

>Confucianism is a set of moral values based on what this old geezer said eons ago.<

As opposed to Judeo-Christianity, which is based on what a bunch of old Jewish geezers said eons ago. "Judaism is nothing like Christianity" - from the standpoint of a non-Christian and non-Jew, they are almost identical in their core beliefs. Christian behavior is historically more expansionist, hypocritical and violent. Sharon seems to want Israel to catch up with the record of the "Christian" nations.

Your premise is garbage. Taoism is actually much more suited to a scientifically based society than the old Abrahamic mythologies. Go ahead, indulge in the religious opiate of your choice, but don't try to convince others that your brand is better than theirs.
Independent AM
   Tuesday, May 21, 2002 at 22:32:36 (PDT)
To gzus in NY,

The Chinese need not worry about being nuked by the Americans anytime soon. There are so many other nations that America needs to rub out first, especially those nations that America has deemed either as ‘failed’ states or ‘evil.’ That will take about twenty years and many trillions of dollars. By that time, China would have reached nuclear parity with the U.S.

Guess who are the most hated people in the world? Take a good look at the man in the mirror! And guess where is the place most likely for the next really big terrorist attack? Did you say that you are in NY? That’s a really big port city. The U.S. federal government acknowledges that only a small fraction of cargo ships and oil tankers are searched for terrorist devices. You will need more than the Talmud to cover your head. China will just sit back and watch the fireworks.

Amen!
   Tuesday, May 21, 2002 at 21:28:44 (PDT)
To the Teochew and Hoklo dudes,

I was wondering, do any of u guys ever realize that the Hoklos, Teochews and Hakkas are very passionate and emotional people? I sometimes think these Southern Chinese groups act very Mediterranean, Latin or Filipino. Why? Hakkas, Hoklos and Teochews are known for their hospitality, expressiveness, and their tendency for "soul searching". These groups tend to venture to many areas of the world and do pretty well with the natives or locals. In fact, intermarriages with natives are very common among of all 3 groups.

Did any of u know that the supermodel Naomi Campbell is part Jamaican Hakka Chinese?

Her Dad is Hakka Chinese while her mom is Black Jamaican.

I don't want to bash the Cantonese, but many are less open minded and they lack the friendliness so often associated with the Teochews, Hakkas or Hoklos. I remember going to some of my Cantonese friends' home and I basically didn't receive any smiles from their family members nor was I offered any food or drink, and if I do, there's a certain suspicion from them. I never experienced this with my Teochew and Hakka friends. Never ever did experienced this with Teochews or Hakkas!

Southern Chinese
   Tuesday, May 21, 2002 at 16:32:21 (PDT)
Southern Chinese,

So what about Europeans who marry within the borders of their own small countries. Or any isolated group of people in USA (Quakers, Mormons, etc.). Are they equally as ugly in your eyes?

Are you (aka. Southern DWG) and ha-zus (NYrician related to Ang-hell) getting crack from the same dealer in the city?

AC Dropout
   Tuesday, May 21, 2002 at 14:51:22 (PDT)
If China gets back Taiwan, they SHOULD not get Mongolia, and the Chinese should let go of Tibet. Period.
cva
   Tuesday, May 21, 2002 at 13:47:52 (PDT)
gzus in NYC,

"China will have no leverage, no recourse whatsoever."

With 2% of ROC citizens living in PRC permanently. And more than 30% of all ROC factories located PRC. That is leverage in and of itself.

"China v. US right now in 2002 would just be a repeat of US v. Iraq, except China has more targets"

That's hardly the case. If it was Pres. Chen would have declared independence the day he stepped into office. The true situation is that if US and China got into a conflict. USA would have no clothes, no non-classified small replacement parts to conduct a war. It would take USA the better part of the year to revamp our industries to conduct a prolong war without China supplying us. By the time USA got around to ROC. It would become waste land after the 500 missiles are launched.

To feed your paranoid view of the world. The F-16 is outdated. The migs are better warplanes. Also every Chinese PhD student is a highly trained spy. Remeber the spy plane incident. China already cracked USA's highest encryption codes. That's why we tried to bug their Presidential 747 boeing airplane eariler this year. But they overheard us and found them. Then embarrassed the USA on the world stage. Remember the country that makes the world's underwear, basically has the world by its balls.
AC Dropout
   Tuesday, May 21, 2002 at 12:57:20 (PDT)
AC, Neitzche and Kant is not good for anything except as a footnote. Rand is the big woman in my book.

I'm not trying to knock China/Chinese philosophers on purpose, I'm just tellin' ya like it is.

And with China "rising", it is more that the West advanced so far it became clear even to the clueless communists in Beijing what they were doing is wrong. What they are doing now is so far just a poor imitation of the West, no better than their attempted imitation of the low tech export model F-16s.

I'm done with this stuff, either ya get what I'm saying or not, and if not, you might have an epiphany or three in the years to come.
gzus in NYC
   Tuesday, May 21, 2002 at 11:29:47 (PDT)

NEWEST COMMENTS | EARLIER COMMENTS