Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate? | Asian American Issues

CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

People are talking about IQ tests? The tests are inaccurate for obvious reasons. Of course when a test is made it has to be made so that the degree of difficulty throughout all languages would be the same. Even if this is achieved, which is impossible, but can be done to a very close degree, people are not all the same.

IQ doesn't mean your super smart, in a test in HK, if i was a westerner there would obviously be some HK history or Chinese history in it, and some visual picture asking questions, like who's on the HK bill. Obviously i would get those wrong, the math would be harder to grasp because it is expected of me to learn both my western language (english or french or whatever) and Cantonese. Physics would be explained so that people of chinese mentality would be able to understand the question easier, which could be a disadvantage to the westerner. Also language arts, cantonese would obviously be a difficulty in those areas. But when the language changes things change dramatically, a cantonese essay and english essay obviously would have different degrees and requirements, i might be a genius in cantonese but a clutz in english or vice versa, so in turn if i do a test in another country i might do better.

IQ tests don't mean anything, just a test to boost confidence, or to "estimate" what you know.

For example look at the vietnamese, the vietnamese language is one of the most complex in the world. I know many friends who grasps english with 80% averages when in vietnam they can't even get a 60% average in vietnamese cases for language. Look at them and their math, their standards are much higher, HK shows up 10 spots behind to VN in the international math competition (Math Olympics i think). To a country way poorer. Villagers were known to have gone to france for education, dispite they were villagers they did better then most westerners, because of how they were raised. In china the same thing is happening, a poor helpless country is turning out first in many international academics competitions. Also in Australia, the highest academic students are starting to be Vietnamese and Chinese. In America, the vietnamese are showing higher standards, a vietnamese girl winning the most outstanding asian student of the year for 2000. Dispite her family being from a country extremely poor.

But undoubtably the average would be lower, as many don't even go to school. But everyone is equal, or if you want to argue and say something like blah blah blah is smarter then just look at the competitions where asian country's come in first. Then look at the average IQ and the results. Obvious a result in the fact that most of the population does not go to school, but if did it would be equal to all others.
Another Chinese going Blah Blah Blah
Thursday, May 30, 2002 at 23:41:50 (PDT)

China always has been an aritificial country. China will not be united.

by Boston.
Massachusetts
Thursday, May 30, 2002 at 20:33:10 (PDT)

It is quite obvious that China's communist government will not last too long. As the Chinese economy grows ever more bigger and the gap between the rich and poor gets wider, the communist will feel the discontent of the people. The majority poor will demand representation in their governments and an end to widespread corruption. The rich will use their wealth to increase capitalistic reforms which in turn will make China more open to international influences. Communist China will give way to democratic China. It's only a matter of time before this happens. I just hope the transition is not a bloody one.
boo boo
Thursday, May 30, 2002 at 17:58:12 (PDT)

Allow me to import my 2 cents in defense of the intellectual exercise initiated by gruz.

What gruz is arguing is that the Judaic-Christian OS is directly related to the rise of the industrialization and western civilization as we know twit. That in order to industrialize an ego-individual centric OS is needed – despite the many shortcomings and mis-interpretations of the J-C ethos that are prevalent in practice.

There is one very interesting facet of Judaism that I like to mention. In the Old Testament, the “first Hebrew” - the honorable patriarch Abraham - has the audacity* to negotiate and bargain with G-d himself. His descendents continued this practice – including Jacob (or was it Isaac) wrestling with “angel” and getting an upper hand and extracting some “promises”. Correct me if I am wrong, but no other system of thought or religion does a human assert himself or herself on an “equal” footing with God. This is the beginning of empowering the individual against the powers that be and seed of democracy.

*When Abraham negotiates with God to spare Sodom and Gomorra that if there are only “100 righteous” men there, to spare the cities – God assented – deal done right? Nooo, Abraham bargains again to 50 righteous men, again God assents, and deal done and sealed, right? Nooo, again he bargains, then again and again.

I believe, the tendency is that China will be separated along ethnic and religious lines – unless of course, China adapts and becomes more horizontal (i.e. democratic) – but this will be a difficult task – horizontal power structure is against the Asian grain. There is no great ideology that “naturally” attracts and holds the people together – as we have in the west – the pursuit of individual happiness, etc. It’s easy and takes minimal energy to control the poor and uneducated but as China gets wealthier and its people are exposed to freedom and begin living the “lifestyle of the rich and famous”, to much effort and energy will be needed to hold it together in the absence of an ideology that the people themselves willingly will subscribe to.

The China’s ruling class’s foremost priority is to get rich quick, and they themselves will be eventually seduced, if not this generation of rulers, then the next.

NYhomeboy
Thursday, May 30, 2002 at 14:54:30 (PDT)

AC
If Sexual Selection worked only on physical traits instead of intellectual traits, the world would be full of models.

Evolution is a work in progress, and the species Homo sapien in 2002 a.d. is still very far from its potential. It was just 100 years ago that 99%+ of this planet's population were farmers, and this is what many humans were selected for. Regarding looks, if you go to many surburban WASP-ish areas, all the people look pretty darn good. Let me elaborate- near cities, the competition is more economic(intellect-intensive) than other; in rural/surburban areas where there is plenty of land, cheap housing, plenty of room to store 6 kids, competition is of a subtlely, but critically different nature.

AC
Evolution is not accelerating because human are not reproducing at a younger age.

Evolution IS accelerating, and you will see this if you can see the entire picture. Most studies only look at the fertility of women, not the men. If you don't understand what the men are doing, you are missing not 50%, but maybe 70% of what is going on. This acceleration is not 100% uniform of course, you can pick out sub-groups that are bucking the trend. Most point to the fertility of minority women, but I implore you to understand the dynamics within each and every group first. Also, most people use only the metric of IQ to measure evolutionary progress; nah, that may be the most significant, but is just one of many.

AC
Even I myself ... reach "fairy tale" lifestyle

So you do have a sense of humor. This one certainly makes me chuckle. I'm sure your life is absolutely peachy, but fairy tale is likely some levels above.

Actually, let me attribute two other cities in addition to Hong Kong(I personally don't know about Hong Kong)to being founded by Jews, a very modest people since whenever people know how much they've accomplished they tend to get pogrommed- Las Vegas and Hollywood, the two entertainment capitals of the world besides NYC, of which I also humbly acknowledge their vast contributions to.

Salome,
positron,
I'm like 15 levels above you two, I don't blame you guys for missing the thrust of my arguments. Mr. BxScience.edu there at least comes somewhat close at times and manages to understand small sections of what I say.

gzus in NYC
Thursday, May 30, 2002 at 11:05:58 (PDT)

Larri Kong, a Woman:

Concerning your quote of a large and powerful family being invincible to the outside world but vulnerable to corruption from the inside: This idea would be much more applicable to the U.S.A, which has been described as the sole remaining superpower in the world, than to China. Perhaps in a century or two, it will apply to China.

AM: The True Jedi
Thursday, May 30, 2002 at 10:34:12 (PDT)

"HK existed long before the Sassoons and Jardines arrived. So what did they do to benefit HK through the drug trade? Are you saying that the Opium trade was a good thing? what are you, a pot-smoker?"

I guess you don't analyze how one thing leads to another thing, huh?

The Sassoons were the ones who smuggled tons of opium into China using British Ships. This caused the Chinese to boycott goods and their trade with Britain leading to a full scale war. China lost the war and was forced to give HK to Britain.

Without the Sassoons and their greed, Britain would have never acquired HK. Without the British, Hong Kong would have never been the most modernized region in China.

People think of HK as the cosmopolitan and important financial center, not the HK in the post colonial days when it was a swampy wasteland.

Southern Chinese
Thursday, May 30, 2002 at 10:17:00 (PDT)

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