Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate? | Asian American Issues

CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

Hopefully communism is not just without consequences on the cultures in the ROC. Proletarian manners are much more natural than the articial Confucian manners. Submissiveness should not lead to success.
rare stuff
Sunday, June 02, 2002 at 06:13:38 (PDT)

China always has been an aritificial country. China will not be united.

*Sure,every country in the world is ARTIFICIAL. Even the US.Where ethnic minorities might not have the same opportunities and equal treatment as the majority. Everywhere else in the world,there'll be dissatisfed people who wants seperation and their freedom for self-determination.

But i do think that China will remain as one for a very long ,long time. When China becomes richer,its people would be satisfied and i think national intergration will be easier if you are economically wealthy and stable. You seldom hear dissatisfied ethnic seperatists movement in rich European countries like Britain and France,but you hear alot abt freedom fighters fighting for liberation in poor countries like India, Indonesia, Middle East,etc.
BigBigWorld
Friday, May 31, 2002 at 21:42:09 (PDT)

gzus in NYC, you said:

>>I'm like 15 levels above you two, I don't blame you guys for missing the thrust of my arguments. Mr. BxScience.edu there at least comes somewhat close at times and manages to understand small sections of what I say.<<

And I don't blame you for your extreme ignorance and self-delusion that breeds your hubris. This is expected from someone with that nickname. Again, your so-called arguments on the situation in the Taiwan Strait and your subsequent comments on technology indicate a lack of basic competence to discuss such matters. Not only is there nothing original in your posts on those topics, but worst of all you could only regurgitate overused cliches and idelogical rants gleaned from Tom Clancy novels and the typical mass media. We are all smarter than you, so save us the ignorant babble. The only area in which you can be 15 levels about us are at those coin-operated machines in the arcades.
positron
Friday, May 31, 2002 at 13:20:36 (PDT)

Massachusetts,

Just like the USA lives in artificial security. The terrorists can strike at any day and rip us apart. The Whites with their mail bombs.

Until the day we can crush the Whites in the USA we will not be safe.

For was it not the Whites who supported the Jews and brought terror to our land.
We must send the Whites back to Europe for peace in the USA.

I too can post half baked messages.
AC Dropout
Friday, May 31, 2002 at 12:49:41 (PDT)

boo boo,

The same transformation is occuring in the USA. It won't be bloody. We are moving away from the pure democracy into a more conservative and authoritarian govern't. The violence here is not publicized to alert the masses.
AC Dropout
Friday, May 31, 2002 at 12:44:04 (PDT)

gzus in NYC,

You've failed. Please take Bio 101 again.
AC Dropout
Friday, May 31, 2002 at 12:41:51 (PDT)

NYhomeboy
horizontal power structure is against the Asian grain

Ask why is it against the Asian grain. Is it genetic, or is it in the value system? It's one, the other, or both. I don't think it's genetic, that is ridiculous. I say it's in the value system, and this can be changed quicker than you think.

NYChomeboy
It’s easy and takes minimal energy to control the poor and uneducated...to much effort and energy will be needed to hold it together

This is typical Asian emperor speak. Gov't is not about "controlling" this or that group of citizens as working for the best interests of its citizens.

NYChomeboy
There is no great ideology that “naturally” attracts and holds the people together

There is. It just hasn't been explicitly written yet. One basic idea that everything is based on: enlightened self-interest. In this forum, it means just having a well run gov't in China creates enough value to hold everyone HAPPILY together, yes, happily, it is possible.

NYhomeboy
What gruz is arguing is that the Judaic-Christian OS is directly related to the rise of the industrialization and western civilization as we know

Not really close at all to what I said.
For the majority of the most basic ideas that Western civilization is built on, refer to non-religious guys like Plato, Adam Smith, Hobbes, etc.

gzus in NYC
Friday, May 31, 2002 at 10:16:03 (PDT)

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