CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

single white guy in NYC,

"China's future is with the ones who escape to the West. It's in Chinatown, New York City, San Jose, Vancouver, Flushing."

That's like saying the future of Ireland is in the hands of NYPD and FDNY.

AC Dropout
   Friday, June 07, 2002 at 12:09:36 (PDT)
China will muddle through, just like it has for thousands of years. At times, brilliant, ahead of every other country. At other times, backwards and pathetic. Sometimes it will be both at the same time. Nothing much has changed in China.
Great power?

Military power? Yes. But so what?
They are surrounded by nations who consider them to be threatening enemies. Japan-Vietnam-Russia-India-Philippines-Taiwan-USA.

Are Russia, the US and Japan going to allow themselves to be bullied by China?
The Chinese government behaves very stupidly. Almost as stupidly as the American government.

Their diplomacy is not diplomatic. At times they whine. At other times they bully. Most of the time they sulk.

China's future?
Who cares.

China's future is with the ones who escape to the West. It's in Chinatown, New York City, San Jose, Vancouver, Flushing.

single white guy in NYC
   Thursday, June 06, 2002 at 17:33:51 (PDT)
AM: The True Jedi:

I see what you are saying...however I feel that the idea applies more to China than it would to the U.S.
U.S is the recognized world power right now because it likes to get itself involved in the World's ffairs. It is very CONCERNED...to say the least...about what goes on in other countries. China...however..is more nuetral about the outside and are more concerned about its own progresses.
So...why does the quote apply more to China than to the US..? It is because in an ironic sense...a country is more likely to be united as one when its focuses and problems are more foreign based rather than civil. The Sep 11 tragedy, for example, made the US a more united country because everyone is on one side against something foreign to them. Corruption from within is less likely to happen because everyone in the country has almost a common standpoint in dealing with foreign affairs. And...America gets itself in a lot of foreign affairs. China...a country whose primary problems are civil...may it be the Taiwan issue or others....are more volnurable to corruption from the inside.

AF: Larri Kong
   Monday, June 03, 2002 at 21:05:27 (PDT)
gruz

> changed quicker than you think.

If it ain't genetic, afer several mellenia its hard wired. But is see quick changes here in USA of the immigrnats - but remember they are droplet in the sea of Americanism.

> Plato, Adam Smith, Hobbes, etc.

~~~don't know much about geology ~~~~, don't know much about biology ~~~

Okay, then I am > arguing that the Judaic-Christian OS is directly related to the rise of the industrialization and western civilization as we know it.

Judism is where the individual was first empowered against the universe, which ultimately leads to logial thinking which lead to self-enlightenment.

NYhomeboy
   Monday, June 03, 2002 at 20:32:42 (PDT)

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