Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate? | Asian American Issues

CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

I don't have much insight into China but will give my two cents.
I think that the US is rather shortsighted in its military spending. I mean this in that those who spend on the military are doing so to line their own pockets. It's really futile to fight (literally) with China, especially with today's (and decades old) weapons. Who cares if the weapons came from the Cold War, or fresh from the hangars of Lockheed Martin? There would be far too many human casualties than the US would be willing to make. As for China, how many Chinese soldiers did they throw at us during the Korean War? It was wave after wave after wave of human sacrifice. With that kind of determination, well, war with China would be very tragic. So those who are filling their pockets with military spending are shortsighted in that in hurts this country in the long run. But I'm guessing they don't really care and aren't really so near-sighted after all.
Chinese have a strong entrepreneurial (sp?) spirit. I think they do well in the West because it's a wholly capitalistic medium. Whereas China is making its transition. But they had to jump start with Communist industrialization, and control a large population with efficiency. Now they're ready to shed their skin and join the world. Be patient, Jing Cha. It takes a while to get the ball rolling but China knows what it's doing.
Babbling Boy
Tuesday, June 11, 2002 at 23:30:22 (PDT)

In all of my experiences with non-Asians who mention in their opening lines that they "have studied Chinese language and culture...," blah, blah, or that they are interested in this and that of some Asian culture, sooner or later they reveal themselves to be the most condescending and antagonistic people toward Asians and Asian countries. On this board, it's funny how someone like "Jing Cha", a black guy who claimed to have "studied Chinese language and culture", is once again one of the most racist and arrogant people around. Hmm, I wonder if there is a pattern to those non-Chinese who claim that they are "interested" in learning Chinese and Chinese culture---a pattern of nefarious motives behind their pursuits. Nonetheless, I'm going to address what this nitwit wrote on this message board:

Jing Cha, you wrote:

>>I am a male in NYC and I have studied Chinese language and culture including their government situation, military strategies and technology.
I find it insulting and ridiculous to even group China in the same class as America.
China is technologically..INFERIOR..to America in EVERY aspect. Their technology is purchased from Russia and other parts of the fallen soviet empire. Their defeat to the Japanese at Nanking shows exactly how well they fight. Japan, a country with 1/10 China's population. China could never hope to compete with American technology.<<

Some of their military hardware is purchased from Russia, just like the U.S. has been doing for a very long time. Surprised? Just recently, the U.S. purchased some 16,000 Russian R-77 medium range AA missiles to equip its fighter jets, because the R-77 is superior to the AMRAAM-120. I'm not making this up. It was reported via spacedaily.com several weeks ago. Moreover, the U.S. had spent huge amounts of money trying to acquire some advanced batteries of the S-300 from Russian in the past decade in order to improve the accuracy of the Patriot missiles. The over-the-horizon capabilities of the F-22 and its thrust-vectoring technology were also purchased from Russia via a batch of Su27s. Not to mention the U.S. purchase of supercavitation torpedo technology, the purchase of Russian rocket engines for use in its next-generation Atlas-V rocket boosters...etc, etc.

These things, and more, have not stopped the U.S. from claiming its technology to be indigenous, or omit mentioning their origins. So what's the big deal? EVERYONE purchases and copies from others these days. Don't try to be a dick and attempt to make insults out of them. Then again, I should have expected someone like you would talk in the way you did. You liked to use the word "never" as in "can never hope to compete with the U.S..." I suppose you have a crystal ball sitting on your desk right now. Or do you just have a trashy newspaper like the NYT opened in front of you?

Defeat in Nanking? Funny how simple-minds like you jump to biased conclusions based on a single war or a few wars. Which people in history have been winning wars all along? Let's see...the Anglo-Saxons were still used as serfs and slaves by the Normans up to the 14th century, the Roman empire was trashed by the Huns, millions died in Europe as a result of the Mongol invasions.., the former Islamic "holy warriors" have been massacred by the herds in modern wars...the list goes on and on. If you hadn't made your stupid and ignorant statements, maybe I could still teach you something. Your post revealed that you have no knowledge of what you claim to have studied. What you were really studying was probably cheap Asian porn videos that cater to your prejudices. People like you make me sick!
positron
Tuesday, June 11, 2002 at 16:05:56 (PDT)

China is rising, but dominate the world economy? Not anytime too soon. There are just too many variables.

One of my colleagues just recently came back from China (our firm is considering setting up a branch office in China). She has been to China many times. She summarized China as "having the hardware, but lacking in software" (meaning it's all exterior show- they hide their interior defects well). We will start a branch office, but the problem is finding somebody to trust in China. Even one of our friends in China said (a Chinese national), it's difficult to find someone to entrust with your business in China.
Hardware, No Software
Tuesday, June 11, 2002 at 12:35:39 (PDT)

JING CHA,

"Their defeat to the Japanese at Nanking shows exactly how well they fight."

Well you know 40 years of war prior to Nanking will weaken a nation no matter what.

"Even now they cannot take Taiwan because of the intrusion of the American presence."

On the flip side Taiwan cannot gain statehood with China presence.

"commanded by FORIEGNERS including Europeans and America"

I see you don't have a company in China. For Foriegners to open a factory or office in China you need to find a local partner to sponsor you. China is very much in control of their economy at this point in the Economic Zones.

"damaged by the fact that the average person will end up on a 2000 YUAN ($210) per month Job"

Actually this is the reason why I fear USA economy will collapse. We as a nation can no longer manufacture anything. Soon all our basic needs will be manufacturered abroad. And the cheap labor we do have to quasi support our manufacturing sector in the USA exist as illegal immigrants, which are undocumented.

With our current leadership more interested in fighting a war on terror. Since the war on drugs failed. We will soon find ourselves in an economic duldrum that will make the 1970's look like a boom economy.

The economic center of the USA, NYC, still has not risen from the ashes of 9/11. The economic realities of this nation is bleak to say the least.

AC Dropout
Tuesday, June 11, 2002 at 10:05:25 (PDT)

Sometimes I wonder what the USA hopes to achieve by spending billions of my tax dollars in their old "anti-China containment policy" set in motion during the Cold War.

What in the world are we supposed to do with all those contensious allies we have in the Pacific (i.e. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and the Philippines.)

Half of them don't listen. The other half are destroying our internal economy.

I believe we should cut back spending and aid to our pacific allies. Focus on strengthening our internal economy, before China overruns the world economy in the future. A strong military presence in the Pacific will not prevent the economic rise of China, which will be the downfall of the USA in my opinion. USA will be like USSR in the future with blind military spending on ghost military enemies. Our near future military enemies are in the Middle East, not in the Pacific Ocean. We are so blind not to see this at this time.

AC Dropout
Tuesday, June 11, 2002 at 07:47:34 (PDT)

I am a male in NYC and I have studied Chinese language and culture including their government situation, military strategies and technology.
I find it insulting and ridiculous to even group China in the same class as America.
China is technologically..INFERIOR..to America in EVERY aspect. Their technology is purchased from Russia and other parts of the fallen soviet empire. Their defeat to the Japanese at Nanking shows exactly how well they fight. Japan, a country with 1/10 China's population. China could never hope to compete with American technology. Even now they cannot take Taiwan because of the intrusion of the American presence.
As for "commanding resources" I have seen the state of China's economy. It may be considered to be exploding, expanding and otherwise but their entire system suffers from the communist/cultural collectivist control of their government. their police are for the most part corrupt and their education system, while to some extent effective, is damaged by the fact that the average person will end up on a 2000 YUAN ($210) per month Job. China's NATURAL RESOURCE to be harvested is cheap labor.
Socially, China could never be an America because America consists of people from ALL nations. China is a country that has been closed to the outsiders for so long that now, their economy (based on cheap labor) is commanded by FORIEGNERS including Europeans and America. (EX. GuangDong or HONG KONG) who are "special" additions to the population.

-------China's future is with the ones who escape to the West. It's in Chinatown, New York City, San Jose, Vancouver, Flushing.

At first I would have considered this a racist and prejudiced remark but I can see that there is truth in it. The Chinese who live successfully in the West all agree that THEY COULD NEVER GO BACK to LIFE IN CHINA.
JING CHA
hkpdjingcha@yahoo.com Monday, June 10, 2002 at 15:04:08 (PDT)

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