CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

AN ARGUMENT is a debate of a situation based upon attainable factual information. An ARGUMENT must and always will be a controversy between to adversarial ideals.

A Quarrel is an Argument that is led by emotion only. Never based on facts, however, it is instead a mixture of facts and emotions such as frustration or anger.

An AD HOMMIMAN is the socratic method of a "personal ATTACK" which is a manifest folly of an argument. It is a simple insult directed towards someone in hopes that they will return with a Quarrel instead of a true ARGUMENT.


Smokescreening is a second folly of Arguments in which RUBBISH, OPINIONS, OBSERVATIONS with little emphasis on science or just pure BULL-S*** is pushed upon another in hopes of directing the attention away from the ARGUMENT ITSELF. This is done when the ARGUMENT is either flawed or non-existant.

Ad-Hommiman attacks include the use of race/sexuality/economic/etc slurs to attempt to force a quarrel.
Video game consoles are irrelevent in an argument about the economic future of a target country. Buisness partners (that probably dont exist in the case of overweight lamers who play with children's toys) are irrelevent unles they directly report to the country with the economic future to be discussed.

One of the beauties of the internet is that in certain instances, people who use the above methods of arguing can give into their own COWARDLY nature and hide behind a cyberspace of wires and chips and throw meaningless insults under ridiculous names that show their own lack of intelligence Ex. AC DROPOUT. Furthermore, people who live in a state that has been devastated by a group of people who live in a desert 100s of miles away should be wise not to insult the intelligence of others when their own government fails to protect them.

In short....CUT THE BULLS***
JING CHA
   Thursday, June 27, 2002 at 12:47:24 (PDT)

So anyway...

I leave America on August 31st and Ill be at Fudan University by September 2nd China time. Ill be wasted from the jetlag though so I wont go to any meetings until the following week.

I spoke to my Fiance recently about how we will handle the marriage situation. I want to have two marriages receptions. One In China and One in America. My family refuses to fly since september 11th and Shi Rui's family probably cant get the Visa's to come to America immediately.
Well have two receptions but as for the one in China, I wont make the guests pay the traditional gift fees. There is like nothing they can buy me that I cant get myself except a love gift.

JING CHA
   Thursday, June 27, 2002 at 12:31:24 (PDT)
AC Dropout,

"Get over yourself. There are richer people out there. There are smarter people out there. There are even more accomplished people out there. I'm pretty sure I have you beat on all 3 qualities."

WTF? Pretty bold assertion and cocky given that you don't even know Jing Cha personally. I guess that's the beauty of posting on-line, people can make any claim they want, even if I may be B.S.
Too Many Cocky People On Goldsea.com
   Thursday, June 27, 2002 at 12:13:25 (PDT)
gzus in NYC,

Don't laugh man. The PS2 flight simulator is the most accurate predictor of the outcome of this hypothetical dogfight. heheh

With a force feed back sidewinder joystick anyone can be an ace in the sky. yahooo!
AC Dropout
   Thursday, June 27, 2002 at 10:11:50 (PDT)
I don't know what you guys are talking about, but let me digress from the recent comments. I don't think we have to worry about China breaking apart, we should worry about what China will become, and I don't mean militarily. China may have millions of consumers, but what they really have is millions of business oriented minds. No other group of people are as driven and business minded as the Chinese, and they will influence the world not militarily but economically. Governments may change, but business will continue.
UPENN
   Thursday, June 27, 2002 at 09:59:35 (PDT)

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