Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate?
(Updated )

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union? "Look at this article by the capitalist swine CNN. China is getting closer to manned space fights."

China is more capitalist than the US...Communist only in name. Not yet as modern as the US. But, Shanghai and Beijing are well ahead of the US South, particularly New Orleans in economic development, although health status in these cities are similar to New Orleans.

"How many countries on this planet can come from abject poverty to a progressive forward thinking country in 50 years without USA assistance."

Singapore and Hong Kong come to mind. The worst students in Singapore would beat the best in Louisiana and Mississippi according to one of the posters. Bit far fetched...Only 4% of Louisiana is foreign born..least of any state in the country. 2% are professors and researchers (mostly Asians) at Universities. If you remove these profs and their families from calculation, what the poster says is perhaps true.

"Africa can't do it, India not getting any closer. Europe can't even unite properly."

Too busy fighting each other.

"Like the experts say, "Before you know it, China is already ahead of you...in a blind of an eye." I was skeptical when I first heard that on TV 5 years ago...but now I wonder."

If China adopts Singapore's immigration and foreign worker policy and deals with corruption, it will shake the world.
Asian American
   Tuesday, December 31, 2002 at 10:27:44 (PST)    [138.220.110.174]
How many countries on this planet can come from abject poverty to a progressive forward thinking country in 50 years without USA assistance.

If you mean to tell me that China has gotten thus far without US assistance at all, you are the biggest liar on two mouse buttons. That is absolutely ridiculous. I wont even reply to that foolish remark with argument.
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP
   Tuesday, December 31, 2002 at 10:22:09 (PST)    [211.156.4.80]
"I got myself one of Sony's entry level digital cameras this Christmas (model DSC-P31), and it says MADE IN JAPAN on the back. Keep in mind, this is one of their CHEAPEST models. Also, my old JVC GR-DVM55U digital video camera, also a basic, entry level model, is MADE IN JAPAN. The only made in China digital cameras I see are the generic no name brands."

I have seen for myself that some "Japanese" products have the "Made In China" or "Made in Malaysia (my MP3 player)" label. Also, a lot of the parts are made in China, than assembled in Japan so they can have a "Made In Japan" label. This is true with American computers, which are all parts from Taiwan and other Asian countries.
These Japanese corporations set up camp in special industrial zones in China. There are many sites, such as Dalian acroos from S. Korea, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and so on. It's no secret. There are also a lot of high tech park attracting computer and IT companies, cell phone manufacturers, and etc. My cell has parts made in China. It's gonna be a fact of life more so and more so, just like "cheap labor" Nikes sneakers started to be made in China in the 90s and people complained about that. In the end, it was all for the better. Can you imagine how much a pair of $150 Jordans would cost if they were made in Japan or the US?
another voice
   Monday, December 30, 2002 at 20:14:40 (PST)    [68.9.169.159]
"Surely, you own your own house in those nice tracts near the airport, with marble floors, don't you?"

As far as I know, the houses near the airport are actually relatively cheap. The Chinese are still city-mined and pedestrian-minded. They think living in the "country' is going down a level. The expensive housing are actually nearer to the city, although more cramped. This mentality is changing though.

As for making fun of Nicki's scooter, we were only doing it because he mentioned it as a luxury item. Trust me, I know China. Even most villagers can afford a scooter, but they'd just buy bikes or ride taxis. The Chinese have high savings rates and "alternative sources of income," such as taking material from their govt.-owned companies and sellings it, and all sorts of hustles.

I think AC keeps bringing up the scooter because it serves well how Nicki actually is, a little man pretending to be big. Nichi mentions how his scooter cost $1000, as if it's a big deal. My uncle spent 50,000 RMB on my cousin's birthday. Most city folk aren't poor at all, trust me. The purchasing parity of China is estimated at $5,000 per capita according to the CIA, but the real purchasing power is probably around $9,000. This is because, China, unlike other countries, do not depend on foriegn countries on anything as a specific need. China makes cd players, jeans, cars, foods, computers of its own. They are often half or a third of the price of imports. So, city Chinese are materially well-off.
another voice
   Monday, December 30, 2002 at 20:05:20 (PST)    [68.9.169.159]
Look at this article by the capitalist swine CNN. China is getting closer to manned space fights.

MANNED SPACE FIGHTS?

Why can't they just progress in a peaceful manner? Why do they have to delare war in space?

Case in point. Nick mentioned his 50 cc putput was proof of his affluence. If you lived in asia I have no clue what a 50 cc putput is suppose to prove, besides some idiot assigning social value to an object.

YOUR LYING....go back in my posts and show me where I said 50 CC. I never said that. My scooter cost $1000+ US and is better than the rest of em. I ride like a cop here on a big fast powerful scooter with built in radio.
When the registration rolls around, Ill get a car.

So even if thier stuff has Chinese manufactured parts in it. Which I suspect it does, they can still stick a "Made in Japan" label on it to get past our USA customs department.

Ok so now everything made in Japan is actually made in China? AC dropout, your full of BS.
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP
   Monday, December 30, 2002 at 19:02:57 (PST)    [211.156.12.242]
Hey, happy new year, Nicholi, and to another voice, and everyone else on here, even AC.

"The mass transit system is just an example of how by starting at square 1, they are able to take advantage of new technology without worrying about old technology."

Yes, you have a point there, AC. However, let's just use the microcosm of the US to see if it holds water. By your definition, the newer cities on the west coast would have better public tranportation than older east coast cities just because they weren't binded with pre-existing rail lines. Let's look at the newest large city in the US, Seattle (Las Vegas technically is, but that doesn't really count as a metro city). Seattle has no subway system, and street traffic is horrendous. All they have is that two mile long monorail system built in the 60's for the world's fair, and there are plans to extend it. Like your example, Taipei, they have no existing underground subway, yet they plan to expand on 60's technology because it is more practical.

Now, let's look at another city with no previous subway system, the largest city in the west, Los Angeles. Their decision to make their "high tech" subway line has got to be the worst waste of taxpayer dollars of all time. The construction was a mess, with many Hollywood stars crumbling, and after completion, no one even rides it! So, can you honestly tell me that one of the newer cities in the US (LA) has a better transportation system than one of the oldest (NYC)? The age of the city, or more precisely, how long it has been in the modern era (since Chinese cities are older, but not in the modern era), has little bearing on how great of public transportation they have. Look at Paris and London. Their subways are fabulous.

I remember I was at the Expo 86 in Vancouver, when the Maglev was on display. That was freakin' 16 years ago! Don't you think it would have been implemented by now somewhere if it's so good? Vancouver's ALRT debuted around the same time, and it's waaay more efficient. Technology is good, but at what cost? Look at airplanes. Those jumbo jets we ride across the Pacific haven't changed since the 60's or even earlier. Why don't they just use the Concorde, and get us there in half the time? Well, because it's too expensive to operate, leading to exorbitant ticket prices. The same thing happens with the city transit.

"China is getting closer to manned space fights."

Oohhh!!! WOW!!! I'm sure Neil Armstrong would surely be impressed by that!

Why do you keep ragging on scooters? Nicholi never used it as a proof of affluence either. I just asked him what kind of vehicle he had, and he told me. What's wrong with having the most commonly used mode of transportation anyways? Like they say, when in Rome... err China...

You know what though? Since you are mocking scooters, you are really making fun of the Chinese people. You say I talk smack about the Chinese people, when you are putting down one of the more essential parts of their lives. Since you love the car so much, what country do you think has the most cars per capita? That's right, the beloved USA, the country you loathe so much.

Actually, most people don't even have their own scooter. They share it amongst the family, the same way many in other countries would share a car. These aren't brand new Vespas (making a comeback) we are talking about. These are beat up old Hondas from the 70's. Nicholi mentioned Huffys and BMX. They only wish they had BMX. I didn't see a single BMX bike in Shanghai (other than at that X-Games exhibition). Most of the bikes they have are those rusted old, fake Schwinns. Cheap BMX bikes run for $100. Top of the line ones can exceed $300. This is kind of on the subject, and I am asking it wholeheartedly, not in a joking manner. What would the people think of me if I rode around on a skateboard?

"Are you planning a career in used cars sales next?"

Sure, maybe you can buy a Shanghai GM or Santana from me, since you are too good to be riding around on a scooter.

"How many countries on this planet can come from abject poverty to a progressive forward thinking country in 50 years without USA assistance."

Without US assistance? The last time I checked, Citibank, JP Morgan, Bayer, McDonald's, Starbucks, Hilton, Marriott, etc. are all US companies. The most trusted bank in all of Shanghai? Citibank. If you have ever been there, you will know that it's right across the street from the world famous Peace Hotel (actually made famous by Chow Yun Fat, not on its own merit). Since China opened itself up for tourism, how many of the hotels are actually owned by Chinese companies themselves? That one tall building (the second tallest in the world, I forgot the name) has the uppermost floors occupied by an American hotel, Marriott, if I recall correctly. I look at the skyline of Pudong, and I see a slew of AMERICAN nameplates on the buildings. Call me back when China has its own conglomerate banking or manufacturing corporation on the lines of Citibank, Sony, Mitsubishi, or even Hyundai... then we'll talk. Oh... you mean you were talking about the government. Well, none of the companies would have gotten in without some kind of loosened trade sanctions. You would be hardpressed to find any country around the world without the US having dipped its claws in.

"So if your said career is in real estate. Do you not see any opportunity in Shanghai?"

Yes, I plan on buying a vacation home there. A good 90 g's US can buy you a nice high rise condo. I don't want the suburban type homes. I want to experience the city living. Actually, I might check out stuff in Wuxi too. It's even cheaper there. Now, this is where your snide tone comes in. What about me being a registered (or suspended, as you said) CALIFORNIA real estate agent would make me an expert on houses in CHINA?! So, I'm supposed to be well versed on all housing markets around the world? You think I can go into NYC, London, or HK tomorrow morning, and instantly start doing listings? Shoot, I couldn't even tell you much about the market in Fresno, Bakersfield, or LA other than what I hear through the industry grapevines and what I read in publications. I can tell you everything you need to know about Bay Area and Sacramento new homes markets (I don't do resale) because that's my specialty. No need to spread myself too thin, you know.

Yeah, you are right Nicholi. Like I said, this guy will find every opportunity to find something negative to say about everyone who disagrees with him. Instead of arguing against the actual topic, he will attempt to attack your credibility because he really has no substance in what he is talking about. He writes more gibberish than anyone else, and tries to pass it off as fact. Look at all the topics on this site. More often than not, this guy has something to say about everything! AC, how much time to you have with your "international business" when you spend the entire day posting your mindless rants online? Or maybe your idea of international business just consists of chatting with jailbait from around the world.
TSJ
Eric@KristinKreuk.net    Monday, December 30, 2002 at 14:26:47 (PST)    [209.86.4.2]
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP,

What point would it make that I called you? What makes you think I am any less tenacious over the phone or in person? Do you really believe you could represent your opinions with more clarity over the phone? Why don't you call me so that we can transfer you to better housing?

Also most brand new 50 cc putput run in the $2000 USD range.

Anyways answering question about what I own and what you may personally own doesn't reflect on a nation. So just because the color of my Amex is black, and I get free oil changes for my vechiles from the dealer, doesn't mean the USA is great or China is great. It is more of a reflection on how I as an individual accumulate wealth.

So back on topic.

My point has been all along that China is progressing at an extremely fast pace and will in my lifetime catch up to the USA.
AC Dropout
   Monday, December 30, 2002 at 12:41:06 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]
AC... once again... see previous post about swaying the facts in your favor.

Like I said, it's a common name. Did you look up the company name? I'm in my office as we speak, so keep it on the downlow, okay? I wouldn't want my boss to find out. =P
TSJ
Eric@KristinKreuk.net    Monday, December 30, 2002 at 11:23:33 (PST)    [209.86.248.172]
Look even if all you China nay-sayers got together you still cannot deny China is progressing in a positive manner.

Look at this article by the capitalist swine CNN. China is getting closer to manned space fights.

http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12/29/china.launch/index.html

How many countries on this planet can come from abject poverty to a progressive forward thinking country in 50 years without USA assistance.

Africa can't do it, India not getting any closer. Europe can't even unite properly.

Like the experts say, "Before you know it, China is already ahead of you...in a blind of an eye." I was skeptical when I first heard that on TV 5 years ago...but now I wonder.
AC Dropout
   Monday, December 30, 2002 at 07:36:54 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]
Judging by your condescending tone, it seems like you have doubts about my said career. Well, you can look up my name, Eric Wong, under www.dre.ca.gov, under the company, New Home Professionals. Yeah, yeah, this is a common name, and you will probably say that it's some random guy I picked out. Hey, we don't even know what you do, making yourself sound like some bigshot international investor or something. You make fun of Nicholi's mode of transportation. So, what kind of car do you own in China? Surely, you own your own house in those nice tracts near the airport, with marble floors, don't you?
TSJ

I fnd it far easier just to give this guy the STONE WALL. Every single thing you say isn't good enough for him. He will doubt the validity of everything.
I'm waiting for him to grow the balls to call my phone number so I can tear him a new one on the phone but,
I guess maybe all those American-Chinese business claims he makes are FALSE, considering he has yet to dial me up. maybe he can't spend a little $ to call across the world. :-(

AC Dropout doesn't own a car, he is probably just like 90% of the Chinese. He probably owns a Huffy or BMX. Making fun of my scooter (which cost me $1000 US dollars?) Yeah, ok son whatever. If he does own a car, he surely cannot keep it when he returns to America. There are Santana rentals but thats about all. And he calls me a liar. You sir' are a Liar!

From what I have seen posted, he doesn't even sound like a big-shot. He sounds like a little sweat-shot owner. Maybe he is an employer after all.

HAPPY NEW YEAR ERIC !
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP
   Sunday, December 29, 2002 at 18:00:43 (PST)    [211.156.6.67]
Nokia-
Merry Christmas and Happy New YEar.
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP
   Sunday, December 29, 2002 at 17:49:39 (PST)    [211.156.6.67]
TSJ,

Eric Wong...had his license revoked, or has displinary action pending.

Okay that really makes you really credible. Are you planning a career in used cars sales next?

So if your said career is in real estate. Do you not see any opportunity in Shanghai?
AC Dropout
   Sunday, December 29, 2002 at 15:44:45 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP,

"I have only been to a few forum threads and only used this name."

Hahaha. What a liar. You were on another thread posing as a Japanese Female and trying to pick me up. The real person came back a day later to smack you up the head for using her ID and making her sound sleazy.
AC Dropout
   Sunday, December 29, 2002 at 15:15:20 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]
TSJ,

My personal preferrence is to stay away from tour groups. Because it is like being herded like sheeps from one spot to another. Your rushed around so the tour person can take you to the next place he gets a kick-back from. But that is just me.

The mass transit system is just an example of how by starting at square 1, they are able to take advantage of new technology without worrying about old technology.

Let's take for example Tokyo, Japan. Do you think they are going to replace their all their tracks with magnetic trains. Or will they just improve on the tracks they have now.

Taipei is able to implement a magnetic train of sorts in their city. Because they did have to deal with underground train tracks.

If people stop putting up personal information as crediable proof of factual information, I would need to take pot shots at them to provide a counter argument.

Case in point. Nick mentioned his 50 cc putput was proof of his affluence. If you lived in asia I have no clue what a 50 cc putput is suppose to prove, besides some idiot assigning social value to an object.

"Made in USA" is a USA law to for domestic protection. I Don't think Japan adheres to our standards of "Made in America", "Assembled in USA", "packaged in USA",
"Printed in USA" guide lines.

So even if thier stuff has Chinese manufactured parts in it. Which I suspect it does, they can still stick a "Made in Japan" label on it to get past our USA customs department.

Not an investor, just another businessman.
AC Dropout
   Sunday, December 29, 2002 at 15:10:21 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]

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