Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate?
(Updated )

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union? Eric,

The presence of US companies in China is the normal course of global commerce, not foreign aid.

American companies do not need to go out of their way to get some special permit from the government to do business with, or in mainland China. The only thing that is "loosened up" is the restriction on the Chinese side. So if you think Uncle Sam "helped" China in some way by allowing companies to establish themselves there... well, you obviously have no clue how international business works. It would be a good idea for you to shut up before you expose more of your ignorance in a public forum.

And before you resort of sophistry and idiotic debating tricks, no, the spy plane doesn't count. Stolen nuclear secrets also do not count. Hopefully you understand the difference between epsionage and foreign aid.

If you think you do know what you're talking about, then answer the following:

1. The U.S. gives Israel billions of dollars in various forms of financial aid every year. How much does it give China?

2. The U.S. sells weapons and ammunition to Taiwan as a form of foreign aid. What comparable exchange does it conduct with mainland China?

You might want to work with your friend Nicholi to help you answer these questions. He seems to be as ignorant as you are. Maybe the two of you together can generate sufficient brain power to get one of the questions right.
Kahn
   Wednesday, January 01, 2003 at 19:12:11 (PST)    [64.161.224.40]
Okay, guys. Before AC goes rambling on some more about how great the Shanghai Maglev is, let me tell you some facts I found in today's newspaper.

The magnetic levitation train was built by GERMANY, not China. The 19 mile railway cost $1.2 BILLION US, and is much maligned for its exorbitant cost. Furthermore, it only goes from the financial district straight to the airport, in other words... FOREIGNERS ONLY.

So, AC, is this your best shining example of Chinese ingenuity?
TSJ
Eric@KristinKreuk.net    Wednesday, January 01, 2003 at 17:14:55 (PST)    [67.116.230.223]
"How many countries on this planet can come from abject poverty to a progressive forward thinking country in 50 years without USA assistance."

I think by this he meant USA government aid not private company investment. It's hard to find a country nowadays without USA company investment. Also the private company investments in China are based on mutual economic self interest so it's not a pure form of assistance. However, I don't think the USA government aided China, at least not to the extent of Japan or Israel. Correct me if I'm wrong.

TSJ
"What's wrong with having the most commonly used mode of transportation anyways? "
Correction, most commonly used mode of transportation is the bicycle(mechanical), not the scooter. It might be the most common mode of transportation in Taipei though.

Isn't there some kind of law that doesn't allow scooters into the heart of the city because of appearance/pollution matters? I know Beijing doesn't allow the really crappy ones anywhere near the center of the city.

"What would the people think of me if I rode around on a skateboard?"

The drivers and the bike riders will hate you if you get in their way. Not a good idea to go on crowded roads since most Chinese drivers are crazy and might run you over. The younger population will probably admire you. They'll either think you're cool or a forward person. The old people will probably call you a western wannabe/sellout.

"AC, how much time to you have with your "international business" when you spend the entire day posting your mindless rants online? "

This goes for all of you, Nicholi, TSJ, AC, etc etc. Don't you all have jobs to go to? You all post like five times a day on this one discussion alone. I thought you all claimed to have important jobs to do.
Christine
   Wednesday, January 01, 2003 at 15:53:03 (PST)    [141.151.9.51]
Nicholi writes:

"If you mean to tell me that China has gotten thus far without US assistance at all, you are the biggest liar on two mouse buttons. That is absolutely ridiculous. I wont even reply to that foolish remark with argument."

Oh really? Why do you call it ridiculous? Is it such common knowledge, like US assistance to Israel, that we should all know about it automatically? Or is it because you can't cite any examples of US assistance and really have no argument at all, Dr. Chickensh*t Servia?

For a PHD, you sure have a tough time telling the difference between "your" and "you're". Let me guess -- your degree isn't in English literature is it?

Here's a hint, Nicholi. Genuinely intelligent people don't need to advertise their achievements. On the other hand, pompous blowhard gasbags with deep seated insecurities won't rest until the entire world knows about their meaingless little degrees.

Another hint: you're on the Internet. Do you really understand what that means? Among other things, it means 1) anyone can claim any credentials, 2) your true worth is limited to what you can demonstrate by articulating your insights, and that is why 3) nobody gives a flying f*ck if you have an advanced degree or not.
Global Citizen
   Wednesday, January 01, 2003 at 10:12:12 (PST)    [64.156.151.115]
What point would it make that I called you? What makes you think I am any less tenacious over the phone or in person? Do you really believe you could represent your opinions with more clarity over the phone? Why don't you call me so that we can transfer you to better housing?

---First of all, I am not calling you and even if I wanted to you are such a chicken you would never give me the number...like I DID.
Don't try to shy away from this. Call me up, I got some stuff from you that noone can edit. And furthermore, such a big buisnessman could simply pickup a phone and call China. Youve been lying to everyone since day one. You aren't in buisness with China. You can't even make a call? Pathetic.
You want me to call you, THEN GIMME your number and real name. LETS SEE whos who. I'll tell you what, Il call you up and tell you my published PHD paper and you can go look it up and read. I will tell you only if you give me your name and number because I wan't to see exactly where you work. Your a liar and I know it.

Also most brand new 50 cc putputs run in the $2000 USD range.

China's biggest problem is they COPY everything from cd players to bikes to scooters. I never EVER said anything about the cc -rating on my scooter so for you to keep mentioning it is really stupid. It isn't funny.

China has no design/ building infrastructure. Do me a favor, name one American Brand or Japanese brand in China. OK: Nike, Sony, Panasonic, Aiwa, Mitsubishi. Now name one Chinese brandname on electronics/clothing etc that has that type of power. What? AC I can't hear you!
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP
   Tuesday, December 31, 2002 at 20:58:07 (PST)    [211.156.9.117]
The Shanghai train is being watched closely, as much for the speed and performance of its 21st century technology as for its jaw-dropping $1.2 billion cost.
High construction costs of "maglev" trains have prevented them from finding customers elsewhere in the world, including Germany, where a proposed Berlin-Hamburg link was scuttled two years ago because of costs. Many in China fear Shanghai's high-speed airport shuttle will end up a white elephant, unable to recoup costs because airport users will shun its one-way ticket price of $6 — a hefty sum for most Chinese.

A maglev train could make the trip in three hours, fast enough to compete with air travel. But the ministry is reportedly balking at the estimated $25 billion price tag, favoring cheaper systems like a homegrown version of Japan's "bullet train," according to state-run media reports.

Experts said the maglev makes more sense as a link between closer cities, like a proposed line between Shanghai and Hangzhou, a city 120 miles away. This is also the most likely use overseas, where it has been considered in busy U.S. travel corridors like Boston to Philadelphia.



These are excerpts from Yahoo news which prove exactly what I been saying.
America has a hefty national debt because of its technology race with RUSSIA but we ate that debt because in the end we beat them. You mean to tell me China is gonna create a hole in its budget just for a 280 mph train? Thats ridiculous Communist thinking at its worst.
China is getting closer to manned space flights? So what? Space theroretically begins when you leave the earth so anyone who flies has been there. If these things are the only evidence you have of POWER, then you have no idea what power is.
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP
   Tuesday, December 31, 2002 at 20:44:29 (PST)    [211.156.9.117]

TSJ/Eric,

You may or may not be right in asserting that China has benefitted from U.S. assistance, but the examples you use are rather lacking.

If Citibank, Starbucks, and other commerical ventures qualify as government assistance, then, hey, surely the numerous boba tea chains springing up all over Southern California qualify as Taiwanese assistance to the U.S.? We should thank the government of Taiwan for ALLOWING the boba tea stores to grace America with their presence.

ROTFLMAO

That's right. I'm making fun of you. Now let's see you come up with better examples of U.S. aid to China.
Impartial Observer
   Tuesday, December 31, 2002 at 16:25:45 (PST)    [207.214.44.149]
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP,

"My scooter cost $1000+ US and is better than the rest of em. I ride like a cop here on a big fast powerful scooter with built in radio.
When the registration rolls around, Ill get a car."

Hahahahahaha, snicker, snicker,
Milk got in my nose...that's smart.
hahhahahahhha.....

Okay you ride like a Jing Cha on your used $1000 scooter. You are the man in China. When do you plan to run for president in China. Since we Chinese need an American like you to show us the way.

Everything I post is a lie. I'm actually a retard living on welfare in the USA, dribbling on my keyboard like Nick. Whatever it takes to make you guys happy.

hahahahahaha.

Look since you're in Shanghai you must already know the Maglev succeeded in its first run.

http://www.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/asia/12/31/china.maglev.biz/index.html
AC Dropout
   Tuesday, December 31, 2002 at 12:24:51 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP,

"Why can't they just progress in a peaceful manner? Why do they have to delare war in space?"

That is because the USA doesn't recognized space rights. The USA assumes since it got there second it owns all of space around the earth. Hence, the USA believes it is okay to fly a satelite over other countries without permission or air rights. In fact our space airforce division wants to keep it that way. LOL when other countries get into space as well.

Please enlighten us to official USA policies that was aims specificly at the PRC to assist in during the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, etc. In comparison to that of Japan, SK, and Taiwan. Even the USA "One China" policy is aim more at antagonising China than helping it.

HK and Singapore got UK support for most of their time.

Besides the USSR and Japan, I don't know of many countries that offered government assistance to the PRC.
AC Dropout
   Tuesday, December 31, 2002 at 11:51:26 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]
TSJ,

Urban planning is as important as technology when making mass transit.

No point in taking about airplane. That industry is a monopoly of 3 companies.

"Why do you keep ragging on scooters? Nicholi never used it as a proof of affluence either."

You are a pretty bad judge of character. Read between Nick's lines and you will see why I rag on his $1000 used scooter.

How do you draw the inference that if I rag on his scooter I rag on all Chinese? Seems pretty convulted logic here. Let me be explicit then. When I rag on Nick, I'm just ragging on Nick. 'Cause Nick has earned every bit of my attention to rag on him.

"Without US assistance?"

Let me clarify when I say without USA assistant. I'm referring to the government. China is still USA strategic competitor. It did not recieve any aid from the USA. Unlike Taiwan, SK, Japan. If fact China is still deal with a lot of USA government antagonism.

You seem to confuse private business action with government actions. They are not one in the same. However, you are bringing up a good point of how much long can China be USA government enemy #1, and yet remain USA economic partner #1.

Also some of those companies you listed are not USA owned. They are called multinations. JP Morgan is a division of Chase. Citigroup not Citibank. You forgot to mention HBSC.

China is very friendly with foriegn companies and foriegner (just look at Nick, I don't see anyone discriminating against his views or him in China). But is the USA friendly with China or foriegn immigrants?

Look discussing China with you is pretty moot. You knowledge on the country is pretty shallow. Look at you most recent post. Name a bunch of western companies and a 2 american bike manufacturers. Can you name the largest bike manufacturer in the world (hint: in Taiwan)? Can you name the top 50 companies listed on the Shanghai or HK exchanges?

They will lead you to the answers you are seeking about the future of China's progress.
AC Dropout
   Tuesday, December 31, 2002 at 11:28:10 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]

NEWEST COMMENTS | EARLIER COMMENTS