Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate?
(Updated )

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union? People, we may disagree with both TSJ and the PHD here and view them as one. However, there are some major differences between them.

TSJ's observations about China are most of the time valid. If you read his travel reports, you'll realize that a lot of it is true. His flaw lies in that he only sees the faults of China. His comments fall on the negative extreme. Though he claims to only disrespect China, the country, some of his negative comments are directed towards the Chinese in general. Therefore, I don't think he respects the Chinese people other than the Cantonese. Whitwashed/self-hating or whatever, his information on China is valid and truthful, though viewed from the negative extreme

Nicholi, on the other hand, spends waaaaay too much time devoting attention to himself. He went a little overboard when he started to devote most of his time to creating his cyber fantasy image which in turn only made him less credible. Most of the time he ducks and refuses to take the challenge that someone else had raised for him and in return calls the other person ignorant, stupid, white, etc etc. When he does respond to the challenge with "facts", the information that he provides is either waaay outdated or invalid. He seems to get pissed whenever someone states an improvement. Judging on his obsesssion to prove that China will never surpass the US(which, btw nobody here has really implied), he's either super ignorant of China's potentials, or insecure at the idea that China may become the next big thing.

Nicholi, I thought you were a secret government agent when you first introduced yourself here, and now you teach at Fudan University?
Christine
   Monday, January 06, 2003 at 14:17:09 (PST)    [141.151.9.71]
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP
I'm still here.

"China is just trying to be better than America without understanding what makes America what it is. They will never succeed in being better than the USA."

Rule number one, never underestimate your competitor. Have you taken a course called history? If you have, you will realize that great civilizations fall and others take over. I don't know if you're insecure or are you just ignorant. Stop sitting here wasting your time putting down China. If you love America so much contribute more to America in your spare time.

"No other country in the world is regarded the way the USA is so for you to simply call westerners (read: Americans) bigots you are simply showing your own ignorance. "

In the ignorant minds of people like you, yea America is almighty powerful. However, the American haters certainly show no repsect for it. Since you travel so much and distrust other sources of information, don't you understand this fact?
Christine
   Monday, January 06, 2003 at 14:00:43 (PST)    [141.151.9.71]
AC,

In all likelihood Nicholi went to China thinking he could get the royal treatment there. Unfortunately for him, the Chinese weren't stupid and quickly saw through him. He's in a bitter and miserable situation now, and although he has no one to blame but his own stupidity, he vents by bashing China at every opportunity. A sad man living a sad life.

Anyone who doubts the future of China can look up an article called "China's Super Kids" by Nicholas Kristof. It's kinda amusing to realize that even the kindergarten kids described in the article can kick Nicholi's ass in both math and English.
Phil Chen
   Monday, January 06, 2003 at 13:40:35 (PST)    [207.214.44.147]
Eric,

You are a banana because you take every opportunity to put down the Chinese and express your smug self-superiority. Your account of the trip to Shanghai stinks with saturated arrogance. You can't stop talking about how special you are and how much you stand out from the crowd.

Just so we're perfectly clear, there are still places in your beloved America today where you will also stand out and be very special and draw lovely comments like "go home ugly ch*nk." It's so sad that your redneck brethren just can't seem to understand that you are their equal.

You see, Eric, your blood isn't red, white and blue. It's just red and Chinese. Perhaps you want to fantasize it's White but it can never be. And far from being a blueblood, you are nothing more than a snotty nerd nobody from Hong Kong in desperate need of class, so get over yourself.
Phil Chen
   Monday, January 06, 2003 at 13:26:44 (PST)    [207.214.44.147]
Nicholi,

I don't have a PhD degree, but I am going to educate you about history. I don't really think you are smart enough to understand what I'm about to teach you, but perhaps other people who frequent this board will find it helpful.

You, like many Americans, like to characterize Asians as being adept at copying and inept at innovating.

What you do not understand is that the copy-innovate cycle is the same throughout history for every group of people. Europeans copied the Chinese invention of gunpowder, then innovated to make it an effective and powerful weapons. The Japanese copied American technologies, then innovated to destroy their American competitors. Taiwanese computer manufacturers also copied US technology, but then innovated so that, unknown to most consumers, the majority of today's hottest laptops are made in Taiwan.

That's right. Apple, Dell, Compaq, HP... they all have partnerships with Taiwanese manufacturers. They started out these partnerships thinking they would do all the design work and the Taiwanese would just stick to manufacturing. That's not true any more. The Taiwanese leverage their manufacturing expertise to come up with superior designs of their own, then offer them as OEM products to American companies.

The copy-and-then-innovate cycle is just in its beginning stage in China. In time the Chinese will also innovate and dominate. It's the way history works. It's inevitable.

As more of more of these Chinese innovations become known in the years to come, your ignorant and out-dated views will only look more and more stupid. Everyone will know, if they don't already, that you are a pathetic moron who bashes China out of his bitterness of being a lifelong failure.

P.S.: Don't forget to note my IP address, Dr. Chicken.
Phil Chen
   Monday, January 06, 2003 at 13:08:39 (PST)    [207.214.44.147]
Nick,

Isreal use to sell arms to China. USA recently told Isreal not to sell arms to China (It was in CNN and taipeitimes 2 days ago). Experts speculate because USA wishes to sell arms to China, since China has a lot of money and USA needs some.

Isreal is pissed off it can not longer sell arms to China, but they need the USA, or Isreal would no longer exist.

Officially we the USA loves Isreal, because Jews run the country. You must be a racist if you don't love the Jews. No other people on this planet suffered as much as the Jews. Don't you watch movies, any movie about the Holocaust wins an Oscar.

You mean the GAP invented the Chinese flip flop and ancient Chinese Bra.

It really more like this. China invented everything. The west wanted everything and beat up China. Now China is recovering and is making everything again.

But don't worry the Chinese control the Jews. Jews just love everything Chinese. It's genetically programmed into them.
AC Dropout
   Monday, January 06, 2003 at 12:03:52 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]
Nicholi Servia PHD EMP,

"....Christine?
are you still here?"

And now the truly pathetic nature of Nick the Dick is revealed.

He is just a lonely man trying to pick up chicks on the internet.

Can't find a descent woman in China. Given your personality woman probably avoid you like the plague.
AC Dropout
   Monday, January 06, 2003 at 11:42:54 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]
Bataar, if you're awaiting the time when China is regarded over the US, you will be waiting a very...long...time. It certainly woudln't happen in our lifetimes, if at all. It's great that China is making improvements, but when they're so far behind they really have no chance of catching up. The US has only been a country for 227 years, and we are the richest, most important country in the world with the highest standard of living. China was once a great nation. So was the Ottoman Empire. Where are they now?

When people here try to back up their claim that China is a rising superpower they always use the same old facts- that highly questionable "8% growth" number, the manned space flight (50 years after the Russians and 30 years after the Americans), and some random magnetic train.
big deal
   Monday, January 06, 2003 at 11:11:18 (PST)    [207.183.117.61]
TSJ,

Low blow with the football thing. You know and I know the niners started it with the late hit during the 2nd half. Always the west coast starting problems. Even in Hip Hop....B*I*G 4 ever.

Miyazaki always had a natural vs. man thing since his Nausicaa stories. It more Japanese centric, since if you note the background is set in a Japanese bath house.

Back on topic.

Look the old WTC was designed by Japan. The Statue of Liberty is French. This line of argument get people no where.

Why do I bring up USA like this in comparsion? Becuase we don't think less of the USA when it is pointed out not everything that makes USA great orginated here. The same holds true for China. I merely point out these hypocracies when they are brought out.

I also love CCTV. But I figure since English is your stronger language skill, I pointed you to english news sources.

Here is an interesting point on CCTV there was a recent TV special. It was about a gift the Chinese Government wanted to give to NYC for 911. They want to give NYC an ancient large golden Budda statue, the size of the Statue of Liberty. They have a minor official from the NYC government on it. They talked about the significance and appropriate location for the statue.

Now look on the flip side, when a major terrible event happens in China, does the USA government give any large significant gift to China. When the USA shot a missle at a Chinese embassy, did the USA build a memorial for China. How about the spy plane incident?

These are pointed critisms at the USA. Why do I make them? Because I wish to see change in the USA for the better.

Yes, there are a few major economic contradictions in China. The major ones are the Stock market and the unemployment rate. Based on those numbers China should be having a sluggish economy like ours. But they don't. This is more a reflection on how economics is a soft science. I'm sure someone smarter than myself will explain this phenomenon 10 years from now.

Okay here is a classic example of your "whiteness" showing. Shanghainese business people buy homes in the USA. And you automatically jump to the conclusion, these people are flighters looking for the good life in the USA. You dismiss the fact that it is more economical to own property in a foriegn country when one travels often. You dismiss the fact the well-to-do often own property outside their resident country (i.e. Where do you summer?). You even allude to the fact they want to marry off their daughters to obtain a green card through family immigration laws (which is nearly impossible by the way).

However, you are above it when you contemplate you $90,000 condo in Shanghai. You see this blatant hypocracy, you twinkie.
AC Dropout
   Monday, January 06, 2003 at 10:15:03 (PST)    [24.136.115.189]

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