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ASIAN AMERICAN ISSUES
Impact of Corean Unification
t's been over a decade since the Iron Curtain came crashing down in Europe. The Bamboo Curtain is little more than a quaint phrase. Yet the Cold War remains very much alive on the Corean peninsula.
Across a 186-mile DMZ glare opposing armies collectively totaling 1.7 million. By all reckoning the Pyongyang regime should have become ideological roadkill following the collapse of communism. Instead, it remains an impregnable roadblock to the economic integration of East Asia, the world's fastest-growing region.
How can an economic nonentity be such a roadblock?
Consider its location at what should have been the crossroads of East Asia. With 56% of the peninsula's land mass, North Corea separates on one side the world's greatest market and labor pool (China) and the biggest reserve of natural resources (Sibera) from, on the other, two of the world's leading technological and manufacturing nations (Japan and South Corea).
But for Pyongyang's intransigence Seoul would already be linked by railroads and superhighways to Beijing, Moscow, Berlin, Paris and London. All those cities would also be linked to Tokyo via a bridge across the 126-mile strait dividing Shimonoseki from Pusan. The savings in shipping cost and time alone could amount to tens of billions of dollars a year. Such a trans-Eurasian land link would accelerate the cultural and economic integration of not only East Asia, but the world. In the process, the Corean peninsula would shed the burden of financing the world's most heavily fortified frontier and become the center of the global economy.
That's the vision dancing before the eyes of farsighted statesmen and business leaders pushing for the political leaps of faith needed to keep Pyongyang taking its unsteady baby steps toward opening North Corea.
But skeptics and pessimists abound. Even a loose confederation with the North would only burden and destabilize South Corea's economy and political system, they argue. For decades to come the impact on the global economy would be entirely negative as investors and customers begin shunning the uncertainties, denying capital and trading partners to hundreds of world-class Corean manufacturers. The ultimate result, argue the naysayers, would be to throw a monkey wrench into an alignment that has allowed three decades of strong growth for East Asia.
What is the likely impact of Corean unification?
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WHAT YOU SAY
[This page is closed to new input. --Ed.]
(Updated
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2025, 06:38:55 AM)
ka,
I don't know why you want to talk about Cuba and NK. Cuba is a tropical island. Have you been to vacation on those island nations. As the native say down there, "Only tourist buy fruits." You can throw a seed on the ground and 3 months later it is food. NK is not a topical climate it has very harsh winters.
As for why they are starving, in economic terms. That was due to the arms race it try to pursue with the SK. If you look at the phases of military development in NK. During the late 1960's USSR stopped supporting NK, due to their alliance with the PRC during the Sino-Soviet disputes. This forced NK to take on a US$2 billion and US$3 billion for the years 1972-79 as it imported machinary from western europe and Japan, they had to default on these loans in the 1990's. This is further compouded that by they unable to reach projected grain production, due to money spent on military. Then of course there are the acts of god that no one can control, like drought, typhoon and short growing seasons for the past 5 years.
The facts basically point to a USSR like demise, overspending on military to keep up with a real threat. Oh, did I forget to mention the sanctions USA still opposes on NK and a lack of perceived credibility on the world stage due to USA opposition.
"India and Pakistan arming, due to US nuclear stockpile."
Arms race goes like this. US has a nuclear stock pile. Which due to ideological differences prompt USSR to have a nuclear stockpile. Due to Sino-Soviet conflicts prompts PRC to have a stock pile. Due to border disputes prompts India to have a nuclear stockpile. Due to civil wars/boarder dispute prompts Pakistan to have a nuclear stock pile.
The next nations on the list that are thinking of going nuclear are Japan and Iran. Japan due to PRC, Iran due to Pakistan.
Knowledge is indivisible to me. How much details do you want. Here answer me this question: Why do 22 million NK popularly support their party? They can't all be spawns of evil or brainwashed as you would like to believe. There must be some stablizing factors Kim Il Sung brings to this axis of evil.
NK kill SK, and vise versa. Just look at the recent fire fight between N/S Korean war boats. And that not the first incident. This of course being due to the fact N/S korea cannot agree to a border at sea for fishing rights. Who knows maybe those fishing boats were not spy boat, but were actually trying to catch some fish for their starving country men. Well you know it is one those shoot first ask question later situations in SK view.
AC Dropout
Monday, July 01, 2002 at 09:29:02 (PDT)
I can handle the Truth--
Many people, including south koreans themselves are not particularly keen about the Korean unification. The reasons are simple.
For some South Koreans, unification with the North means that South Korea must pay an enormous amount of money to rebuild North Korea. But the problem is that South Korea isn't a rich country, and North Korea is very very poor. Added to this problem, a unification will undoubtedly mean that a lot of North koreans will want to live in the south--this will mean that south koreans will experience the usual social problem that is associated with a large number of unemployed people--on top of this, north korean people have been heavily brainwashed to hate capitalism, americans, south korean businessmen, etc.
Of course, i think that most south koreans ususally strongly condemn anyone who speaks against unification.
From the northern point of view, many north koreans support unification more or less only if their government becomes the legitimate government--in other words, they support unification only if south is forced to become communist. This is also true from the southern perspective--obviously south koreans don't want to be unified if they must be unified under communist terms.
Both China and Japan are more afraid of what unification means--Korea will probably unify only if North korean government crumbles. This will mean that a lot of North Koreans will try to flee to China or Japan. Also some Chinese hardliners, those who remember fighting with North Korean guerillas or some who have an absolute hate for all things american, will want to keep North Korea in power, but at the same time, to keep them facing their guns pointing south. Japan, probably much favor Korean unification under Southern terms, as North Korea has created a lot of problems in Japan--while South has consistently shown it's willingness to cooperate with Japan.
Some people say that America secretely disfavours unification, as they want an excuse to keep forces to "hem in" china. (some people including AC dropout and I Ching) But the U.S. has a definite reason to see unification under Southern terms, as U.S. feels very threatened by Northern research into nuclear and missile technology--north is a very willing vendor of these technologies. It of course, is in U.S. best interest, that she does not have to get involved in any wars.
But north korea has practiced such harmful policies, every nation including China has kepted distance from supporting pyong yang.
these are just some of the things to think about.
ka
Monday, July 01, 2002 at 08:49:28 (PDT)
I can handle the truth,
There's the issue of weapons sales... South Korea is a customer of old US wesponry(to stock against a possible attack North Korea?)
Another one was something like if the Koreas unite, then they may become an issue(possibly to Japan, for the stuff they're responsible for during the occupation of Korea?)
And there was something I heard about... how right now, US has a place to monitor Asia by stationing US military in Korea... they can practically watch over Asia...
Not sure if they're facts... but something I've heard floating around.
Mk
Monday, July 01, 2002 at 00:34:33 (PDT)
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