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The Decade's Hottest Car Trends
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Carmakers introduce new features that hint at the revolutionary changes that will mean the extinction of the cars we grew up with.

by Gary Lee







PRESENTED BY STATE FARM INSURANCE COMPANY

GOLDSEA | IDENTITY

The Decade's Hottest Car Trends

Gas-Electric Hybrids
"Tiny piece of crap cars with a big price tag."

     That's the rap given to gas-electric hybrids by engineer Evan Boberg after spending three years in Chrysler's hybrid program during the 1990s.

     You know that a technology is about to take off when it's slammed by a disgusted faithful.

The Honda Civic Hybrid gets 650 miles from a 13.2 gallon gas tank.

     It's mid-2004 and -- blame it on $2-a-gallon gasoline or the stricken conscience of a generation of SUV-lovers -- the world is about to see the debut of two hybrids that hit the high and low ends of the ute segment. Ford's gas-electric hybrid Escape was to have debuted a year ago with the promise of 35-40 city miles to the gallon, nearly double the 20 mpg of the conventional model. The delay was attributed to Ford's decision to engineer its own drivetrain for a technology suddenly looking less like a passing political statement and more like the only bridge between today's gas-guzzler's and tomorrow's hydrogen-powered marvels.

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     The loudest knock against hybrids had always been the cost of squeezing in a hefty electric motor, a monster battery and a cunning flywheel contraption to reclaim energy lost to braking -- with the only the offsetting savings from using an engine with half the horses. But the $4,000 differential estimated when Honda and Toyota were producing only a few thousand hybrids a year has been dramatically trimmed by the magic of mass production. For example, Toyota -- from which Ford licenses its core hybrid technology -- has brought down the manufacturing differential between its hybrid Prius and comparable Camry to just $1,000. That doesn't seem prohibitive in the face of $350-a-year savings on your gas card.

     The 2004 Honda Civic Hybrid is the kind of car likely to win the race for critical mass. At $19,400, it's $3,000-4,500 more than conventional Civics, but it achieves 48 city mpg for the CVT (Continuously Variable Transmission) version for 650 miles on a 13.2-gallon tank. The standard Civic coupe gets only 35 city mpg. It would take about 12 years for a 15,000-miles/year driver to recoup the cost differential with $2 gas, but your bona fides as a green earthling would be established instantaneously. The $2,000 Federal Clean-Fuel Vehicle Tax Deduction doesn't hurt either.

     For those who want the unassailable status that can come from saving the earth while driving the kind of prideful utes that Lexus makes, the price differential is a privilege. Back in 2002 Toyota, Lexus's parent, predicted that by 2012 every one of its models will incorporate hybrid technology. It's less giddy today about the hybrid's expected adoption rate, but its morning-after projections are being buoyed by actual sales figures. From only about 30,000 global hybrid sales two years ago, Toyota's projecting 150,000 for 2004 and 300,000 for 2005. That would still be only 4.3% of the 6.8 million units it sells each year, but it's closing on that inflexion point when promise becomes inevitability.

     By early 2004 the spectre of $3 gas made the hybrid sensible. The question was no longer "Will people buy" but rather "Are we missing the boat?" Major carmakers were tripping over one another to announce hybrid models. DaimlerChrysler promised a Dodge Ram Contractor Special while Ford will base the 2007 Mercury Mariner on the Escape hybrid chassis and drivetrain. GM and Nissan, which had decided to skip hybrids altogether to focus on the more distant fuelcell cars, announced plans to buy components and technology from Toyota. Gas-electric hybrids have arrived as the next step in the evolution of the car.


Performance Chips

BMW 5 series models are favorites for performance-chip tuning.

     Many don't know that their car's performance is controlled by a chip. Once an enthusiast learns this fact, the first question: can I boost my car's performance by reprogramming the chip? For about $300 you can buy a replacement chip for your car's ECU (electronic control unit) that will retune your engine for aggressive performance. Performance chips are available for Volvo, BMW, Honda, Ford and other makes from companies like Dinan, Superchips, Upsolute, Autothority, Steve Conforti as well as from carmakers like BMW. Installing a chip costs another $75 or so. It's today's equivalent of spending hours tweaking the timing, carburator and sparkplug gap to coax a few more horses from a standard-issue powerplant.

     The second question: why didn't the manufacturer program the chip for peak performance in the first place? Production engines must satisfy a whole slew of criteria, of which torque and horsepower aren't the most critical. By the time engineers get done meeting standards imposed by the EPA, FTC, insurance carriers and consumer advocates for mileage, emissions, safety, reliability and durability, the engine's power curve has been flattened. By contrast, performance chips tune the engine to optimize torque along the entire curve damn the consequences. For example, Conforti chips are touted as providing optimal power along the entire torque curve by remapping performance every 200 rpm. The payoff is more power on the low end and a smoother torque curve as the engine moves past 3500 rpms. The torque and horsepower boost provided by a performance chip is typically in the 5-10% range. That may sound modest, but the added pickup is enough to make the enthusiast feel like he's strapped into a rocket.

     The tradeoff? A noticeable reduction in gas mileage (typically 4-10%), more tailpipe emissions and a somewhat increased possibility of failure from exceeding the possibly sub-par tolerances attained by some component maker. Obviously popping in a performance chip carries the risk of bad or defective programming that can jeopardize engine life or void the manufacturer's warranty. Fortunately, the adjustments made by most chips are said to be transparent to the diagnostic computers used for routine maintenance. PAGE 2

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“From only about 30,000 global hybrid sales two years ago, Toyota's projecting 150,000 for 2004 and 300,000 for 2005.”


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