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The Crimean Crisis Sets Dangerous Precedent for China's N. Korea Plans

Beijing is already sending signals that Moscow’s swift military push into the Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula will serve as a model for its own move into North Korea once the disintegration of the Kim Jong-un regime progresses further.

Monday’s editorial in China Economic Net — the state-run business-oriented website and a sister site of the Communist Party organ Global Times — is titled “Ukraine Unrest Will Not Affect Relations with China.”

The article purports to cite a statement by a Kiev-based diplomat surnamed Chen who denied that China is frustrated that the Ukrainian unrest has prevented delivery of grain under a $3 billion deal. That diplomat offers no particulars on grain delivery but does mention that Ukraine continues to deliver weapons systems to China, including a second Zubr-class air-cushioned landing craft and other unnamed weapons systems. Ukraine had been home to one of the former Soviet Union’s leading technological centers. It is also the source of the hull of China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning.

The brief CE article’s drift becomes clear when it goes on to quote a statement by another diplomat named Qin Gang on Beijing’s view of the uprising and Putin’s decision to send troops into Ukraine.

“China believes the Ukrainian people are able to resolve their problems themselves,” Qin is quoted as saying, noting that “US president Barack Obama, on the other hand, has delivered a blunt warning to Russia that there will be costs for intervention in Ukraine.”

That’s followed by the statement of a fellow the state-backed think tank called the China International Institute for Strategic Society: “The Ukraine uprising is just another revolution triggered by the Western powers, particularly from the European Union. Ukraine’s future is still unpredictable.”

This brief “CE exclusive” leaves no doubt that Beijing doesn’t consider the sending of Russian troops as interfering in Ukrainian affairs but sees as meddling the statement by President Obama. The assessment of Ukraine’s future as “unpredictable” seems to imply that Russian troops may be necessary to guard against exigencies that may be triggered by that unpredictability.

Precisely the same kind of rationale will be advanced for Beijing’s rumored preparations to rush troops and armaments into N. Korea as soon as the current regime founders. Failure to do so would lead to possible chaos in N. Korea and a flood of refugees, many of them armed, flowing into China, goes the rationale. To prevent the instability from threatening the safety and stability of the border regions of China, Beijing must help maintain order in N. Korea if the current regime collapses. That explanation will be given to the world as Beijing executes a lightning deployment of troops, tanks and missiles into N. Korea.

Beijing and Moscow share similar interests and ambitions with respect to N. Korea and the Ukraine. N. Korea is China’s buffer against US troops in S. Korea and Japan. The Ukraine has been Russia’s main buffer against NATO. Its population of 50 million is about 17% ethnic Russian. That percentage is nearly twice as high in the southern Crimean peninsula which juts strategically into the Black Sea. Ukraine hosts several major Russian military bases and the only pipeline carrying Russian natural gas into Europe. Its membership in the EU would leave Russia in a state of dependence on a potentially adversarial nation.

Less than three days after uncontrolled protests forced Moscow-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to flee south, Russia mobilized troops to prepare the Crimea to become a Russian puppet by putting military muscle behind a moribund independence movement. If Beijing needs a similar cover for its move into N. Korea, Kim Jong-un’s eldest brother Kim Jong-nam has been kept waiting in the wings under Chinese protection. China is also home to about three million Koreans, mostly emigrants from N. Korea living in the border regions of northeastern China. Many would welcome a chance to return home to participate in a new Beijing-run N. Korea.

This scenario has long been one of the potential nightmares that have been worrying Seoul and Washington. A sure way to ensure that it will come to pass would be to let Moscow have its way with Crimea and even the rest of the Ukraine. The prospect of precisely these kinds of opportunities for adventures against the West have encouraged Beijing and Moscow recently to renews their old alliance. It remains to be seen whether the US and its allies have the stomach to nip the Crimean adventure in the bud and forestall China’s move into N. Korea.

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Comments

Sinopuppy · Mar 3, 11:49 PM · #

Well the young Kim Jong Un executed China’s main contact Jang Song Thaek.
If the present regiem collapses, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for China to restore order and stability in North Korea.
The North Korean gulags and death camps might actually be abolished by the Chinese.
China doesn’t want to take over North Korea. North Korea is an economic basket case.

flybynite · Mar 4, 05:22 PM · #

I agree that the lives of N. Korea’s disfavored would improve under Chinese control. But to most Koreans China moving into N. Korea would be the ultimate nightmare as it would create a massive stumbling block to Korean unification.

N. Korea may be a basket case economically but it offers many temptations for China in terms of resources, strategic position and the ability to control S. Korea’s land access to the rest of the Eurasian land mass.

Sinopuppy · Mar 5, 12:01 AM · #

Kim Dae-Jung’s and his “Sunshine Policy” was still extremely hesitant of full economic/political intergration with a needed 2 Trillion $USD economic package needed as stated by World Bank and IMF. Public relations aside.

I know korean schools dont teach this in their history classes of korea but in 1627 and 1636 Qing Dynasty China conquered the korea pennisula and previous korea king Injo fled to the south at Hanseong (Seoul) to Ganghwa Island. In prisoned on Ganghwa Island Qing Dynasty troops stormed the island and captured king Injo’s son and wife/consorts of king Injo and held them hostage.

King Hyojong, who was allow to live as a hostage.

Prince Yi Gak was held as hostage as well.

Korea ruled by Qing Dynasty viceroy General with korean royalty figureheads. Previously korea pennisula conquered by Mongol/Han Yuan Dynasty as well.

Qing Army garrissoned in Pyongyang and MuKden until Sino-jap war which resulted in 1895 – Lost control of korea to japan.

Re-Control of korea pennisula by China would establish buffer zone against historic enemy japan.

Sinopuppy · Mar 6, 12:37 AM · #

China has 10 million individuals with one million or more in financial assets.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/25353615/ns/business-world_business/t/world-now-has-million-millionaires/#.UxfBY0JdX7A
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China has 358 Billionaires

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101464721
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I would bet you a coffee Korean’s would emulate the Chinese and would also like to be wealthy

Sinopuppy · Mar 6, 01:08 AM · #

There are 19 Million Chinese ethnic Koreans in China

http://english.chosun.com/ethnic-chinese-korean

**There is a Chinese Korean name Bak Weijing who is a equity shareholder in BAIDU who is a billionaire. He was the #7 employee who was a original member of the BAIDU team.

korean_guy · Mar 11, 06:28 PM · #

“I would bet you a coffee Korean’s would emulate the Chinese and would also like to be wealthy”

Chinese are one of the most depraved nations on earth. Chinese assume Koreans worship mammon like themselves. Chinese live in a “Chinese” world all to themselves and cannot relate to reality that others see. If Korea wanted to emulate the Chinese they would have long time ago. Emulating Chinese and China is not good for one’s well being.

Sinopuppy · Mar 11, 08:11 PM · #

JAPAN BUILDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS

http://www.infowars.com/report-japan-secretly-developing-nuclear-weapons/

**In 1954 U.S.A deployed Nuclear Artillery in Japan and deployed USAAF Bombers with Atomic bombs

Sinopuppy · Mar 17, 07:41 PM · #

I was stationed in Seoul in my younger days and frequented South Korea & japan regularly for business over the yrs.
I have my observational and annecdotal experience of Koreans & japanese.

I’ll agree to disagree with you.

Sinopuppy · Mar 18, 10:14 AM · #

Everybody in the world want to get the FUCK OUT and come to America.

USA #1

Sinopuppy · Mar 22, 10:12 AM · #

KOREANS UNHAPPY IN SOUTH KOREA

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/01/04/2011010400291.html

*They are fixated on money and want to come to America like everybody else in the world.

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