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ASIAMS.NET |
ASIAN AMERICAN ISSUES
COMING SHIFTS IN PACIFIC POWER BALANCE
f the outcome of the Cold War has shown one thing, it's that economic power begets military power -- and not vice versa.
Today American power is unrivaled, the product of three centuries of unbroken industrial and territorial expansion. A half century ago its sole Pacific rival was Japan, a nation that had begun building an industrial base a mere seven decades earlier. Today Japan is wealthy but stagnant and adrift, its spiritual and political back never having mended after having been shattered by World War II and subsequent occupation.
While not entirely writing off Japan's potential to pose new challenges, the U.S. has begun eyeing China as the next strategic rival.
Barely three decades after China began ditching its centralized command economy for the glories of capitalist wealth, most of its 1.25 billion citizens remain mired in an agrarian subsistence economy. But the 125 million Chinese participating in the industrial economy of the coastal regions have fueled China's drive for superpower status. By 2015 it will match the U.S. in GDP -- then double it by 2025. Militarily China has been a formidable land power since the Corean War. Now the Red Army is acquiring state-of-the-art warplanes, missiles and submarines. It has announced plans to send a man into space by 2005. China's overriding aim is to keep the Pacific from becoming an American pond.
Any shift in the Pacific power balance must also take into account the two Coreas, Taiwan and Russia. At any given time each of these nations are triangulating a course of maximum advantage with reference to the U.S., China and Japan. The precise posture these nations ultimately adopt may well tip the balance.
How will the Pacific power balance shift in the coming decades? What developments will pose the greatest threats to American power?
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WHAT YOU SAY
[This page is closed to new input. --Ed.]
(Updated
Tuesday, Apr 1, 2008, 06:10:15 PM)
I don't think that China is a homogenous country, is it?
I think that if the American who was fighting with the Taliban was other than white, like, say, Asian American, there wouldn't even be consideration as to whether he was 'misguided' or had 'youthful indiscretion'. It would only reflect poorly on all Asian Americans.
am
Wednesday, December 12, 2001 at 23:27:27 (PST)
There is no question that by 2020, China will be a superpower. The trend is inexorable and inevitable.
Realist
Wednesday, December 12, 2001 at 19:45:25 (PST)
Asian Americans and Japanese have the highest buying power!
No, actually the Singaporeans have more buying power than the Japanese, but they mostly save their money.
Asian American Male
Wednesday, December 12, 2001 at 11:35:49 (PST)
Realistic ABC:
The American strength is its diversity, which China does not have. To everyone who says that homgeneous cultures are great, I only say look at Japan and Korea, and add to that, corporate America's homogeneous culture, better known as Enron. These homogeneous cultures, whether corporate or country are leading their shareholders and citizenry in the path towards destruction.
Serious heterogeneous cultures that could compete with the US are UK, the Netherlands, Canada and Singapore, but they are all small and not serious threats. Moreover, if you define west as white, the US would not be a western country by 2050. So, to me it does not make any difference, whether China dominates or US dominates.
"What annoys me is that the US will go back to vilifying the nincompoops that make the Chinese gov't after Osama is disposed of, and unfortunately China's image reflects upon every Asian American, just like Osama's doings unfortunately affects Arab Americans."
Now, I am annoyed at all the whites in this country. A number of them are supposedly fighting for the Taliban and Osama and one has been taken into custody. If the whites do not trust me, I do not trust them either. After all, one of them was in the Taliban!! So, perhaps the rest of us should look at all white Americans with beards, with a great deal of suspicion!!
Asian American Male
Tuesday, December 11, 2001 at 10:36:56 (PST)
People are always saying that China has a big market for just about everything, and that includes Hong Kong as well. In my opinion, I think there are open niches in the Chinese Mainland that needs to be filled. This is the reason why China and to a certain degree HK, lags the consumption power and westernization of Japan.
I think the Asians with the highest buying power are the Asian Americans and the Japanese. The average Chinese in China and HK earn a small pocket change!
I actually have a part time job/hobby/extra income activity selling USA made musical equipment and collectibles to many individuals in Japan. Despite the reports of Japan having a slumping economy by the day, the Japanese as individuals are loaded with money and can afford to cough up serious cash for many American Made stuff especially rare vintage items that can go up in value as the years go by. Many of my Japanese Clients pay double the amount of what we would usually pay for a rare and nice USA Made item.
The only Chinese clientele that I have are from Taiwan which doesn't really count because Taiwanese are not regarded as Chinese by their standards.
So where are the wealthy Chinese in China and HK? Why aren't they burning their money on fine things with sentimental value? Or is it just another farse that these wealthy yet stingy individuals from HK and China are actually in existence?
Asian Americans and Japanese have the highest buying power!
Monday, December 10, 2001 at 16:39:26 (PST)
Realistic ABC,
"I don't think it is safe to assume China & US will be fine for next 50yrs, no wars, certainly, but uh relationships can get very nasty even without fighting..."
China is USA's # 4 trading partner and USA is China's #1 investor. It would take something drastic to ruin political relationship that both country shares at this point, given the economic position. Rich and powerful people in both countries would be peeved if they could not exploit each country to become more rich.
The future is uncertain, so who knows. The only flash point in the near future could be Taiwan, N. and S. Korea, and China relationship to Iraq that could negatively effect the stability of Asia and USA/China relationship.
JJP,
"I don't think China would seem quite so threatening if it hadn't thrown the first punch by labeling the US as its primary national security threat all the way back in the early 1990s"
From China point of view USA threw the first punch in 1899 when Secretary of State J. Hay initiated the Open Door Policy on China with Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Russia.
"China must accept the fact that, even as a powerful country, it is not the "middle kingdom" of a 1000 years ago"
Actually, imperial China still thought they were "Middle Kindom" only 150 years ago. So you can see it is still pretty recent history in China's view.
Although I agree with you on your present day analysis of the situation.
I don't think that it is fair to present it in such a light that China totally unjustified in their action.
AC dropout
Monday, December 10, 2001 at 08:20:42 (PST)
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