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ASIAMS.NET |
ASIAN AMERICAN ISSUES
COMING SHIFTS IN PACIFIC POWER BALANCE
f the outcome of the Cold War has shown one thing, it's that economic power begets military power -- and not vice versa.
Today American power is unrivaled, the product of three centuries of unbroken industrial and territorial expansion. A half century ago its sole Pacific rival was Japan, a nation that had begun building an industrial base a mere seven decades earlier. Today Japan is wealthy but stagnant and adrift, its spiritual and political back never having mended after having been shattered by World War II and subsequent occupation.
While not entirely writing off Japan's potential to pose new challenges, the U.S. has begun eyeing China as the next strategic rival.
Barely three decades after China began ditching its centralized command economy for the glories of capitalist wealth, most of its 1.25 billion citizens remain mired in an agrarian subsistence economy. But the 125 million Chinese participating in the industrial economy of the coastal regions have fueled China's drive for superpower status. By 2015 it will match the U.S. in GDP -- then double it by 2025. Militarily China has been a formidable land power since the Corean War. Now the Red Army is acquiring state-of-the-art warplanes, missiles and submarines. It has announced plans to send a man into space by 2005. China's overriding aim is to keep the Pacific from becoming an American pond.
Any shift in the Pacific power balance must also take into account the two Coreas, Taiwan and Russia. At any given time each of these nations are triangulating a course of maximum advantage with reference to the U.S., China and Japan. The precise posture these nations ultimately adopt may well tip the balance.
How will the Pacific power balance shift in the coming decades? What developments will pose the greatest threats to American power?
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WHAT YOU SAY
[This page is closed to new input. --Ed.]
(Updated
Tuesday, Apr 1, 2008, 06:10:14 PM)
I don't know much about politics, but I want to ask this: "are we in the West liable to contain China because once it reaches parity (economic, politically, militarily) the West's hegemony and dominance is in jeopardy because China is not a puppet of the West?"
We can only have our prosperity and freedom at the expense of others???
Why can't the world be more multipolar?
I am tired of watching Christian TV and endlessly seeing and hearing that China and the Islamic fundamentalist would be the enemies of Christ in Armageddon and other stuff like that...
The way they put it sounds more like a race war. Is that how Jesus would really want our world to end? Have any of those people ever been to China, Iraq, Iran? Have they met and talked with the people there on a personal level? Most ordinary Chinese and Muslims only think of getting by in life and feeding the family, let alone hating the West and wanting to see its destruction.
the reality of survival of the fittest
Saturday, January 05, 2002 at 12:30:14 (PST)
"Going forward, S. Koreans, Taiwanese and Mainland Chinese in the coastal area are the ones to watch."
These need some globalization, particularly South Korea!!
Asian American Male
Sunday, December 30, 2001 at 15:16:00 (PST)
RE: Asian Americans and Japanese have the highest buying power!
China's 1.3 billion people market is all about potential. Remember, they're still at an early stage of economic development. Most of the adequate buying power is confided to the coastal region. As far as HK, the territory has one of the higher GDP per capital in the world. I believe it's still higher than UK, its former colonial master. HK, along with Japan, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand are the only official developed economies in Asia Pacific. However, keep in mind that HK is only a city of not even 7 million inhabitants. That's why on a macro consumption measure, they're not very relevant. While Taiwan and S. Korea on average are not nearly as wealthy as HK, but their population is much bigger.
The average buying power of Japanese are still very high, its economic problems are largely at the corporate level. But Japan is on a structural decline with an aging population. Going forward, S. Koreans, Taiwanese and Mainland Chinese in the coastal area are the ones to watch.
RE: Asian Americans and Japanese have the highest buying power!
Saturday, December 29, 2001 at 17:41:13 (PST)
RE: Asian American Male
Tuesday, December 11, 2001 at 10:36:56 (PST)
Unlike Japan and Korea, China is NOT a homogenous country. There are 55 ethnic minority groups in China. While the Han Chinese does make up about 90% of the population, there're clear differences among them.
RE: Asian American Male
Saturday, December 29, 2001 at 17:19:51 (PST)
I think the US will remain the leading global superpower for at least the next 30 to 50 years. However, we'll likely move towards a tripolar world, with China gradually reclaiming its historical role as the dominant power in Asia and the European Union recreating the “Roman Empire” of the 21st century. As far as Japan, Harvard’s S. Huntington puts it best, Japan has always aligned itself with the great power of the time (much of ancient history it was China, during the mid 1800s it was the British Empire follow by Germany in WW2 and now the US). Or Japanese professor Noda Nobuo wrote in his article, “Japan in a World of Rival Empires: Japan of the twenty-first century will probably be like a soccer ball kicked back and forth between the American and Chinese players.” For all its great accomplishments the last 150 years, Japan rose to power largely because of the decline of the Chinese Empire and the isolation under Mao. That trend has clearly reversed and the Middle Kingdom is “back in the game.” Japan is basically a bunch of islands of roughly 125 million people. All else being equally, it lacks the resources and population to compete with the continental powers of the US, the EU and potentially China.
pax americana
Saturday, December 29, 2001 at 17:09:24 (PST)
I never said India was homoegenous. It's a very diverse country.
truth
Tuesday, December 18, 2001 at 08:25:20 (PST)
Asian Americans and Japanese have the highest buying power!,
Japanese people in general put a lot of emphasis on packaging and quality and workmanship.
Well, I think China will be first to except rock and roll. They have a few bands in the music industry there.
The music industry in Taiwan and HK are far from rock and roll. More like 40's cooners still, love balads. Not many bands are promoted in those countries.
Wish you the best in the search to spread music worldwide.
AC dropout
Monday, December 17, 2001 at 13:29:09 (PST)
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