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ASIAMS.NET |
ASIAN AMERICAN ISSUES
Impact of Corean Unification
(Updated
Tuesday, Apr 1, 2008, 05:52:45 PM)
t's been over a decade since the Iron Curtain came crashing down in Europe. The Bamboo Curtain is little more than a quaint phrase. Yet the Cold War remains very much alive on the Corean peninsula.
Across a 186-mile DMZ glare opposing armies collectively totaling 1.7 million. By all reckoning the Pyongyang regime should have become ideological roadkill following the collapse of communism. Instead, it remains an impregnable roadblock to the economic integration of East Asia, the world's fastest-growing region.
How can an economic nonentity be such a roadblock?
Consider its location at what should have been the crossroads of East Asia. With 56% of the peninsula's land mass, North Corea separates on one side the world's greatest market and labor pool (China) and the biggest reserve of natural resources (Sibera) from, on the other, two of the world's leading technological and manufacturing nations (Japan and South Corea).
But for Pyongyang's intransigence Seoul would already be linked by railroads and superhighways to Beijing, Moscow, Berlin, Paris and London. All those cities would also be linked to Tokyo via a bridge across the 126-mile strait dividing Shimonoseki from Pusan. The savings in shipping cost and time alone could amount to tens of billions of dollars a year. Such a trans-Eurasian land link would accelerate the cultural and economic integration of not only East Asia, but the world. In the process, the Corean peninsula would shed the burden of financing the world's most heavily fortified frontier and become the center of the global economy.
That's the vision dancing before the eyes of farsighted statesmen and business leaders pushing for the political leaps of faith needed to keep Pyongyang taking its unsteady baby steps toward opening North Corea.
But skeptics and pessimists abound. Even a loose confederation with the North would only burden and destabilize South Corea's economy and political system, they argue. For decades to come the impact on the global economy would be entirely negative as investors and customers begin shunning the uncertainties, denying capital and trading partners to hundreds of world-class Corean manufacturers. The ultimate result, argue the naysayers, would be to throw a monkey wrench into an alignment that has allowed three decades of strong growth for East Asia.
What is the likely impact of Corean unification?
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WHAT YOU SAY
[This page is closed to new input. --Ed.]
Chinese person,
That's what China wants the world to think. They may not be able to take over the world, they definitely want Asia.
Anyway, w/o China pushing them from behind, I doubt NK would be as vocal as they are now. You're very naive if you consider any Chinese efforts to diffuse the situation as sincere.
Incase anyone thinks the U.S. is caving into NK demands, their current discussions will only be used to keep NK from doing anything crazy before they're done with Iraq.
Once the West (I say that since it is Europe and Japan who really need middle eastern oil) isn't dependant on 1 source of oil, you'll see the Americans come over to Corea and who knows, maybe they'll unite Corea on behalf of the SKs. You'll see China show their true colours then too.
huu76
Wednesday, January 08, 2003 at 00:35:17 (PST)
[65.95.192.33]
NY+boy,
The history of the Korean people is one of playing the role of a fanatically loyal follower to whoever is the controlling power. When Korea was part of the Japanese Empire during World War Two, Koreans who willingly joined the Imperial Japanese Army committed unspeakable horrors and rape on other Asians in a manner even crueler than the Japanese. When northern Korea came under Soviet influence, Koreans adopted a form of communism more fervent than that of the Soviets by as evidenced by the massive statutes of Kim Il-Sung everywhere. Likewise, when southern Korea came under American influence, Koreans adopted a vicious form of anti-communism that manifested itself with the killing of 100,000 Koreans prior to the Korean War and twelve long years of killing communists in Vietnam. During that time period, many Koreans became fanatical Moonies that gave Christianity a bad name. And when Korea was part of the Mongol Empire, hundred of thousands of Koreans served in the failed invasion of Japan. Because China is or will be the leading power of East Asia in the 21st Century, a change is in store for the Koreas. Already many Koreans are learning Chinese and traveling in China to reconnect to an ancient past and to prepare for a future. More Koreans than any other foreigners are willingly learning Chinese in China. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200301/07/eng20030107_109699.shtml
History has proven the minds of the Koreans are easily malleable. Therefore, it is not at all ridiculous to say that the South Korean people will change their anti-communist mentality within a generation. The greatest irony of the South Koreans’ wasted effort to kill communists in the Vietnam War is that by 1992, the South Korean government had commenced diplomatic relationship with communist Vietnam. The person elected to succeed Kim Dae Jung as president of South Korea is now Roh Mu Hyun, the most left-leaning of half a dozen contenders for the presidency, who married the daughter of a man who had died in prison for his Communist sympathies. The Commies are clearly now in control of the Korean peninsula. Most South Korean people are so blind with love for their master Jesus Christ to realize that his philosophy about equality, sharing the wealth with the poor, and criticizing materialism is essentially communistic. Every week, tens of thousands of Koreans in both North and South turn out in anti-American demonstrations. Thus, the Korean people now have the distinction of being the most anti-American and pro-Communist of all East Asian people. Strangely, as a result, North and South Korea are more unified in spirit than at any time in the last 57 years.
I Ching
Tuesday, January 07, 2003 at 22:57:39 (PST)
[199.183.35.189]
Chinese Person,
The Chinese wants reunification. So China distances itself from the Korean issue. The decision of reunification should depend more on the Koreans themselves rather than other countries such as the US or China.
Chinese and American relationship is so important for the long run that its unlikly to change.
Chinese guy
Tuesday, January 07, 2003 at 13:12:55 (PST)
[131.181.127.42]
huu76,
"So now the U.S. will be expected to give NK AND China a big payoff."
That's what you get when people call the bluff to the USA "axis of evil" routine. International politics and high stake poker share this common thread, someone gotta pay.
China not actively doing anything. As usually it is passive in the international areana. Watching the events transpire and only acting when opportunity arises.
So now if USA doesn't do anything the world will know the USA has over extended itself on the world theater.
The decline of the USA influence in Eastern Asia may be near.
SK president is actually the smartest one of the bunch. He is actually trying to stablize the situation. Let's see if the USA will give him face.
AC Dropout
Tuesday, January 07, 2003 at 09:52:06 (PST)
[24.136.115.189]
huu76,,<-------this person is a loser and he/she tries to bash China whenever he/she got the chance to. This is a Korean forum, why are you telling the Koreans about how China wants to take over Asia? This person must work for some KKK webring or something.
What kind of rubbish are you spitting? You sound like China's gonna take over the world. The last thing China wants is war. You are a loser and stop lying to everyone. China is doing fine right now and it doesn't need to expand anymore. There are lots of beautiful and exciting cities in China, not only Shanghai. 99.99 percent of Chinese are happy with the recent economic and military developement in China and over-seas success of Chinese people. That alone explains why the Chinese people want world peace.
Chinese person
Tuesday, January 07, 2003 at 05:13:20 (PST)
[67.30.168.12]
> the unification will come sooner or later or after very long time -anyways it should come regardless of the happening time.
>>Yes smart man. And sooner or later we are all dead. I want to ENJOY a united K, sooner not later.
> is in agreement that the USA should pull out. SK doesn't want them there,
>> US and K need each other. K needs US for the short term. US needs K for the long term - to counter China and reassure Japan.
Curiously amd interestingly I think K is the only significant non-white & industrialized country with near or significant Christian majority - with extremely sprited and pushy missionaries to boot. So in a way they are kindred sprits. Korea, more than any other has swallowed Americanism - lock stock and barrel. No?
NY+boy
Monday, January 06, 2003 at 22:10:57 (PST)
[24.90.48.98]
Korean Man,
True the IMF is made up of several members, but U.S wealth=>Germany+Japan.
Having a lower currency isn't all that bad. Countries that rely on exports (SK, Canada, Japan) actually prefer lower currencies because it makes their exports more affordable, and attractive to the U.S. market.
True the U.S. doesn't want the less profitable industries. However, it would hurt SK more to lose these industries than it would hurt the U.S. to take them back again. Unfortunately, the owner of Hyundai is pro-American, and Americans will buy fewer cars if the anti-American rant continues.
Conservative thinking puts the house in order, Liberal thinking takes the credit. Clinton reaping what Reagon/Bush Sr. created is a good example. Most liberal countries are neither feared or respected (Germany, Sweden, Japan, Australia, Canada). They are only liked if they hand out free money.
In the long run a United Corea may be better off, but in the 20 years it gets pushed back, other countries (especially Japan) will be even farther ahead. This will only make them hate Japan and Taiwan even more.
AC,
NK now claims that the NMD (which is on the backburner) is actually a National Missile Offense. Wonder if they know that's what everyone else calls ICBMs (they're about 50 years late)? Hearing NK keep on repeating that an American attack is immminent is getting tiring. The Americans haven't even changed their force levels in SK.
Now SK is talking with China to get them to stop NK (we all know China is pulling the strings). So now the U.S. will be expected to give NK AND China a big payoff.
huu76
Monday, January 06, 2003 at 09:30:50 (PST)
[65.95.192.2]
Ai Ya,
I was watching some political news show over the weekend. They had like 5 editorial reporters giving their thoughts on the subject. I was really shocked the hear many of them were in agreeement to pull the 37,000 USA troops out of SK. They feared that they would be unneccessary causalities in an armed conflict.
It seesm the tide of popular opinion is in agreement that the USA should pull out. SK doesn't want them there, and the USA doesn't want a repeat of Vietnam.
AC Dropout
Monday, January 06, 2003 at 08:25:36 (PST)
[24.136.115.189]
http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis_jan5.html
This is an article written by someone who's notorious for his anti-american position.
It basically points out that China and NK are capitalizing on the ignorance of youth. Children in SK are too young to remember how the U.S. defended their country from the beloved NK and Chinese armies when SK was mainly all farmers (not the industrial and technological engine it is now).
Ai Ya,
The Americans are there to keep China out of SK.
China's so called proseperity exists in Shanghai, that's it. That's like saying Malaysia is wealthy because Kuala Lumpur has paved streets (that's about the only place in Malaysia that has them).
huu76
Sunday, January 05, 2003 at 18:37:48 (PST)
[65.95.205.69]
Lavienrose,
I like your take on things. It's probably the most unbiased one in here in a while. Have you noticed though that the only people who view this as a real and urgent crisis is NK?
Honestly though, if the Americans weren't all over the world, Europe and Asia would be in disarray.
The Arab world would once again invade Europe (that's probably a strong reason why Italy and Spain support the US so strongly, they know they'd be the first ones in the line of fire), and this was when they were equals. How pissed do you think they are now that Europe has progressed over the last 2000 yrs.
Secondly, China and NK would start blackmailing everyone in Asia. Japan and SK can write lots of cheques. As well, Vietnam would start to get bullied around and Taiwan would be history. China only plays pacifist because it's not the biggest fish in the pond.
huu76
Sunday, January 05, 2003 at 18:28:04 (PST)
[65.95.203.107]
I just want NO war in Korean peninsula and just peace mood forever here!
Nothing else !
the unification will come sooner or later or after very long time -anyways it should come regardless of the happening time.
Many people on this board don't know lots of behind stories and what the things are going here really.
anyways God Bless You for this coming new year 2003. ^ ^
korean man
Sunday, January 05, 2003 at 14:56:57 (PST)
[218.145.25.77]
huu 76
I agree with your opinion in partially but there i found some mistakes from your opinion.
My English is not so good but I hope you could understand my mainidea.
SK doesn't deserve to be rich, the Americans should leave and let the North take over.
=====>(I don't want SK become rich and it would be very hard but if American troops leaves Korean peninsula and then NK could take over SK? NO -to be honest SK enoughly win against NK but just want to avoid war because it would cause killing several people and destruction of key equipments.)
SKs seem to be very treacherous. Who's going to buy SK goods (China?) if the U.S. restricts trade w/ SK because of their current backstabbing? America made them, and they can just as easily break them. Remember who bailed them out during the Asian currency crisis.
====>(Yes America also can produce easily what the SK produce and export to them but they don't do that because they have already their point where they can meet much more profits-no need for america to reproduce such little profitable industry.)
And it was IMF who helped SK in Asian financial crisis in 97-(Not possible relief fund If EU power financial nations don't approve-IMF is financing union from several countries -power is at the hand of America,JPN,Germany) -actually is that IMF and World Bank and other global financial institution have manipulated and depreciated korean currency value by 60% in 90's. They were looking for the final blow: the depreciating korean current value against foreign rate usually dollar to drop the value of korean economy by 60%.
American side doing with korean went up 60% while korean side lost 60%.
Good for Americans. Bad for koreans. This was the trick and manipulation
that even the South korean's government and corporation absolutely have no
control over.
And Korea paid it all back to IMF with accounting interests rate already in 2001.
You really want the reason why Korea had to call SOS for IMF? It was American banks who lent out money for Korean enterprises. but all in a sudden-they urged repayment. That was the real reason. I don't know the behind story.)
Ever heard the saying "War is good for business"? WWII and the cold ware are good examples.
(SURE-I know)
Corean unification will weaken SK and put them back about 20 years. SK doesn't have as much money as Germany did to absorb 21 million wretches.
(I don't think Korean unification will weaken SK put us back about 20 years. Only in macroeconomic statistics like in GDP per capita etc etc in short term(for 10-20 years) but in the long term view-it will enlarge Korean domestic market and NKreans will become good motor for Korean economy.)
You'll know when America's ready to attack when they cut off food aid to the UN humanitarian program. NK can't fight if it can't use American food to feed its army.
(SURE but no war-SK should stop war if America and NK show sign of starting war against each other-Now the result in future will say how things are going to go. war always brings tragedy anyways.By the way American medias are not always right-please aware)
my comment:
Your opinion is very good but in a way very very similiar with conservative old koreans' and very obsolete way of thinking.
Its really pity that my English is very poor now.
korean man
stupidumbguy@yahoo.com
Sunday, January 05, 2003 at 14:45:03 (PST)
[218.145.25.77]
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