China Exports Keep Accelerating After Record 2025
By Reuters | 09 Mar, 2026

The January-February period saw a jump of 19.8%, multiples of the 5.7% rise in December, putting China on track surpass the $1.2 trillion trade surplus it enjoyed last year.

China's export growth quickened in the January-February period, customs data showed on Tuesday, keeping the world's second-largest economy on track to top its record $1.2 trillion trade surplus over the course of 2026. 

Outbound shipments from Asia's powerhouse grew 21.8% in U.S. dollar terms in the January-February period, sharply up from the 6.6% increase recorded in December and blowing past the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 7.1% growth.

China's trade surplus came in at $213.6 billion, the data showed, far exceeding the $169.21 billion recorded in the same period last year. Economists had forecast a trade gap of $179.6 billion in the poll.

Looking to the rest of the year, there appears to be few if any signs of a halt to China's export dominance.

U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed 2025 tariff war barely dented China’s industrial momentum, with manufacturers redirecting their exports to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America to blunt the impact of losing U.S. demand.

More governments are now weighing trade restrictions similar to Washington's, worried that China's industrial overcapacity and deflation are pushing excess goods into global markets and threatening their own manufacturing sectors.

Premier Li Qiang announced last week that China would seek an economic growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, down from last year's 5%, which was met largely through a one-fifth surge in its trade surplus.

Although policymakers pledged a "notable" increase in household consumption in the government's next five-year plan, economists are sceptical that Beijing will move away from its reliance on exports any time soon, as the strategy document offered few specifics to bolster expectations for robust demand-side reform.

China's imports increased 19.8% in January-February, well above the 5.7% gain in December. 

Factory activity data for February released last week showed Chinese firms still struggling to turn a profit at home, even as overseas orders improved, underscoring the continued appeal of exports for policymakers and producers heading into 2026.

Trump is expected to visit Beijing later this month for a highly anticipated leaders' summit, but hopes for a meaningful truce between the two superpowers remain low, with both sides appearing ready to resume their trade war if necessary.

(Reporting by Joe CashEditing by Shri Navaratnam)