US CFOs Had Projected Solid 2026 Growth Until Iran Happened
By Reuters | 25 Mar, 2026

Despite anticipated price increases due to tariffs, most surveyed chief financial officers had expected revenues and hiring growth.

U.S. corporate finance chiefs' outlook for the economy improved over the first months of the year, at least until the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, with executives expecting to increase employment amid solid revenue growth, though with continued pressure as well to raise prices, according to a Federal Reserve survey.

Tariffs and trade policy remained the top concern among the 473 chief financial officers polled in a quarterly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve banks of Atlanta and Richmond with the Duke University Fuqua School of Business. 

But the share of CFOs citing those things as their biggest concern continued to ease to just over 20% versus nearly 40% in mid-2025, when the Trump administration was pursuing dramatic increases in import taxes, many of which have since been reduced or ruled illegal. Other top issues included labor quality and availability, cited by 17% of respondents, and the outlook for sales, cited by 15% of respondents.

The overall mood, however, was positive in a survey that was conducted largely before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran pushed the price of oil over $100 a barrel and disrupted shipping and travel in the Middle East. 

Up to that point, "business expectations for both demand and hiring in 2026 held up,” Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, vice president and economist with the Richmond Fed, said in commentary released with the latest survey. “Most firms expected demand to increase in the next 12 months and reported continued hiring ... Very few firms expected declining demand or a need to lay off workers."

The median of survey respondents saw their firms' revenue rising 5% this year, and anticipated boosting employment by 1.6%. Prices were also expected to rise 3%, with unit costs rising by the same amount.

The poll was conducted from February 17 to March 5, with no indication in the results of differences in attitudes among those who responded before or after the start of U.S. airstrikes on February 28. 

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Chris Reese)