Despite recent social reforms to reduce the extreme gender skew in favor of boys, Chinese men of marriageable age will continue to face a worsening imbalance for the next 20 years, according to the data from the National Health and Family Planning Commission.
The current sex ratio for births in China stands at 117.7 boys for every 100 girls. That represents a large deviation from the normal global ratio of around 103 to 107 boys for every 100 girls, and results from China’s traditional preference for male heirs exacerbated by the one-child policy. The resulting skew may undermine social stability and health population growth in the future, fears China’s central government.
“More social and economic policies favoring girls will be introduced to gradually change the social norm where males are more preferred as they carry the family name and later support the parents,” said Chen Zhu, vice-chairman of the 12th National People’s Congress Standing Committee.
The government has already implemented various administrative measures designed to provide incentives for having girls. The result has been a significant decline in the gender ratio among newborns from a high of 121.2 boys for every 100 girls in 2004 to 117.7 today.
Regardless of how effective government policies prove from here on out, past gender imbalances at birth will continue to translate into a worsening ratio among Chinese of marriageable age through at least 2033, especially as the average age of first marriages continue to climb into the late 20s and early 30s.
By 2020 men aged 20 to 45 will outnumber women of the same age by over 30 million. That will likely worsen to nearly 40 million by 2033. The magnitude of that imbalance will manifest itself in not only more mating competition among males in China but also with marriageable men of other nations, especially southeast Asian neighbors with lower per-capita GDPs like Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines, Mongolia, N. Korea, Cambodia and Laos. The resulting resentment could also exacerbate territorial tensions. The shortage of young women will also fuel a surge in prostitution — already considered a growing social problem.
