Import Prices Surged Most in 4 Years Even Before Oil Surge
By Reuters | 25 Mar, 2026

Import prices jumped 1.3% on month in February after a 0.6% surge in January even before the actual Iran conflict caused oil prices to surge $100 per barrel.

U.S. import prices increased by the most in nearly four years in February as energy costs surged in anticipation of conflict in the Middle East, adding to signs that inflation is poised to accelerate in the months ahead.

Import prices jumped 1.3% last month, the largest increase since March 2022, after an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in January, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, increasing 0.5% after a previously reported 0.2% rise in January.

In the 12 months through February, import prices advanced 1.3%. That was the largest year-on-year increase since February 2025, and followed a 0.3% increase in January.

"Having not been a factor in the inflation story recently, import prices are beginning to be an issue ahead of the surge in fuel prices that is to be expected in March with the conflict with Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz," said John Ryding, chief economic advisor at Brean Capital.

The government last week reported that producer prices increased by the most in seven months in February, driven by broad increases in services and goods.

A survey from S&P Global on Tuesday showed businesses paid more for inputs in March and asked higher prices for their goods and services, blaming soaring energy costs and supply chain disruptions. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has boosted oil prices by more than 30% since the conflict started at the end of February. Fertilizer prices have also increased, which will feed through to higher food inflation.

The strain from the war is on top of import tariffs, which businesses continue to gradually pass on to consumers. Imported fuel prices rebounded 3.8% last month, the largest rise since April 2024, after dropping 1.2% in January. There were increases in the prices of petroleum and natural gas. 

Food prices increased 0.8% amid rises in a range of goods, including vegetables, distilled alcoholic beverages, meat and oilseeds. Excluding fuels and food, import prices shot up 1.2%. The so-called core import prices rose 0.7% in January. 

In the 12 months through February, core import prices jumped 3.0%, partly reflecting prior dollar weakness against the currencies of the main U.S. trade partners. The trade-weighted dollar declined 1.6% from the start of 2026 until the outbreak of the war in late February. It decreased 7.37% in 2025.

Prices for imported capital goods vaulted 1.3%, the largest gain since the government started tracking the monthly series in 1988. That reflected higher prices for computers, peripherals and semiconductors as well as industrial and service machinery. These are likely related to an artificial intelligence spending boom by businesses.

Imported consumer goods excluding motor vehicles rose 0.5%, driven by higher costs for apparel, footwear and household goods. Prices for motor vehicles, parts and engines climbed 0.2%. 

Economists are forecasting the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, one of the inflation measures tracked by the U.S. central bank for its 2% target, rose by 0.4% in February, which would translate into a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. Core PCE inflation increased 0.4% in January and advanced 3.1% year-on-year. The government will publish the delayed PCE inflation report for February next month.

The prices of goods imported from China increased 0.5% in February, the largest advance since March 2022, but dropped 1.9% year-on-year. There were also increases in the prices of imports from Japan, the European Union and Canada. Prices for imports from Mexico fell 0.5%.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci )