Asia’s territorial disputes are mostly maritime and regional powers are pouring money into submarines as the most potent enforcers of their claims. China is setting the pace with its massive naval modernization program, but the underwater arms race also involves India, Australia, Japan, S. Korea and ten other Asian nations — as well as the United States.
The Spratly Islands, the Taiwan Strait, Dokdo (Takeshima) Island, Northern Limit Line, the Kuriles, Celebes Sea, Malacca Straits are all territories disputed by not only regional powers but by lesser powers like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan and even impoverished N. Korea and Bangladesh — all of whom have or are acquiring submarines.
Recently India inked a 10-year lease from Russia on the nuclear attack submarine INS Chakra for delivery later this month. Flush with mineral money and feeling threatened by China’s buildup, Australia is considering a $36-billion upgrade of its submarine fleet. Japan is adding eight more subs to bring its total to 24. Indonesia ordered the first of several submarines from S. Korea last fall.
The proliferation of undersea forces isn’t entirely the product of paranoia or ambitions over disputed undersea mineral wealth. In February of 2010 N. Korea is thought to have used one of its many one-man mini-subs to torpedo the S. Korean light cruiser Cheonan, killing 46 seamen.
The potential for naval clashes has been shown numerous times in fishing disputes between China and S. Korea, China and Japan, China and Vietnam and the two Koreas. As the world’s new economic center, East Asia is also the busiest hub of sea traffic. About $1.2 trillion worth of trade passes through the crowded waters of the South China Sea alone. That kind of traffic is a surefire prescription for friction over sea lanes, not to mention an irresistible temptation for pirates.
The US is tied to the region not only by its own interests in keeping crucial sea lanes open but by commitments to defend allies like Taiwan, Japan, S. Korea, the Philippines and Australia. It has recently signaled a shift of its focus from the Atlantic to the Pacific, with an attendant shift of the majority of its submarine fleet.
China has expressed resentment over what it sees as US meddling far from home and has shown determination to assert its status as the dominant regional power with a program to add nuclear attack and ballistic-missile submarines to its fleet of 60 diesel subs. It has also shown its intention to begin projecting power beyond neighboring seas with last fall’s launch of the aircraft carrier Shi Lang, with several more in various stages of construction and design.
The proliferation of submarines like an algae bloom multiplies the potential for severe disruptions to global trade. Even a relatively primitive submarine has the ability to sink billion-dollar tankers and freighters, disrupting global commerce. That in turn raises the stakes in the maritime power struggle and puts more pressure on Asian nations to field ever larger submarine fleets. Ultimately, the undersea competition will lead to an explosive situation that not even the US will have the ability to monitor, much less defuse, especially if it is confronted with the possibility of facing off against China’s massive naval force in its back yard.
The ultimate solution to this developing undersea arms race will likely require as-yet unborn technologies coupled with large-scale regional or global free trade pacts that will present united fronts against underwater shenanigans.
