Asia’s territorial disputes are mostly maritime and regional powers are pouring money into submarines as the most potent enforcers of their claims. China is setting the pace with its massive naval modernization program, but the underwater arms race also involves India, Australia, Japan, S. Korea and ten other Asian nations — as well as the United States.
The Spratly Islands, the Taiwan Strait, Dokdo (Takeshima) Island, Northern Limit Line, the Kuriles, Celebes Sea, Malacca Straits are all territories disputed by not only regional powers but by lesser powers like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan and even impoverished N. Korea and Bangladesh — all of whom have or are acquiring submarines.
Recently India inked a 10-year lease from Russia on the nuclear attack submarine INS Chakra for delivery later this month. Flush with mineral money and feeling threatened by China’s buildup, Australia is considering a $36-billion upgrade of its submarine fleet. Japan is adding eight more subs to bring its total to 24. Indonesia ordered the first of several submarines from S. Korea last fall.
The proliferation of undersea forces isn’t entirely the product of paranoia or ambitions over disputed undersea mineral wealth. In February of 2010 N. Korea is thought to have used one of its many one-man mini-subs to torpedo the S. Korean light cruiser Cheonan, killing 46 seamen.
The potential for naval clashes has been shown numerous times in fishing disputes between China and S. Korea, China and Japan, China and Vietnam and the two Koreas. As the world’s new economic center, East Asia is also the busiest hub of sea traffic. About $1.2 trillion worth of trade passes through the crowded waters of the South China Sea alone. That kind of traffic is a surefire prescription for friction over sea lanes, not to mention an irresistible temptation for pirates.
The US is tied to the region not only by its own interests in keeping crucial sea lanes open but by commitments to defend allies like Taiwan, Japan, S. Korea, the Philippines and Australia. It has recently signaled a shift of its focus from the Atlantic to the Pacific, with an attendant shift of the majority of its submarine fleet.
China has expressed resentment over what it sees as US meddling far from home and has shown determination to assert its status as the dominant regional power with a program to add nuclear attack and ballistic-missile submarines to its fleet of 60 diesel subs. It has also shown its intention to begin projecting power beyond neighboring seas with last fall’s launch of the aircraft carrier Shi Lang, with several more in various stages of construction and design.
The proliferation of submarines like an algae bloom multiplies the potential for severe disruptions to global trade. Even a relatively primitive submarine has the ability to sink billion-dollar tankers and freighters, disrupting global commerce. That in turn raises the stakes in the maritime power struggle and puts more pressure on Asian nations to field ever larger submarine fleets. Ultimately, the undersea competition will lead to an explosive situation that not even the US will have the ability to monitor, much less defuse, especially if it is confronted with the possibility of facing off against China’s massive naval force in its back yard.
The ultimate solution to this developing undersea arms race will likely require as-yet unborn technologies coupled with large-scale regional or global free trade pacts that will present united fronts against underwater shenanigans.
Mobs of protesters rallied across Japan to end nuclear power on Saturday, the three-month anniversary of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that triggered a nuclear disaster that is likely to overshadow Chernobyl in terms of real impact on neighboring populations.
Traffic in some sections of Tokyo were completely paralyzed as protesters jammed streets chanting anti-nuclear slogans. Marchers called for an immediate shutdown of nuclear plants and stricter radiation checks by the government.
“Since the earthquake, I’ve realized that nuclear power is just too dangerous for use,” said Takeshi Terada, 32, a shipping worker who marched with 10 friends in Tokyo.
Protesters carried colorful banners and banged drums as they walked in orderly rows past the Economy Ministry and the head offices of Tokyo Electric Power Co., which operates the Fukushima plant. Some families even brought toddlers and dogs covered in clothing with anti-nuclear slogans.
“I’m worried about the children,” said Mika Obuchi, 45, who marched with her husband and 9-year-old daughter. “It’s not just in Fukushima, there are radiation problems even here in Tokyo.”
Some nuclear plants across the country remain shut in the wake of the disaster, putting Tokyo and other areas at severe risk of blackouts this summer. This has led to campaigns to cuts the use of lights and air conditioning. Some companies are moving computer centers to parts of Japan with more stable power supplies.
At the Fukushima plant, hundreds of workers are still struggling to bring the crippled reactors to a “cold shutdown” by early next year and end the crisis. Radiation fears have forced more than 80,000 people to evacuate from their homes around the plant.
Many more people have had to leave their homes along the northeast coast because of tsunami damage. Three months after the disasters, 90,000 are still living in temporary shelters such as school gyms and community centers.
Along the tsunami-ravaged coast Saturday, residents bowed their heads in a moment of silence at 2:46 p.m., when the earthquake struck.
Embattled Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan visited Kamaishi, a hard-hit coastal city. Kan has been under fire for his handling of the disasters and the country’s recovery plans, surviving a no-confidence vote earlier this month by promising to step down once the recovery takes hold.
Kan’s visit Saturday was seen by some as a suggestion he will attempt to prolong his tenure.
“It is not just a matter of listening to what people say at the destroyed areas. I want to incorporate what I hear into government measures,” he said.
He couldn’t bring home the Olympics, but he’s nailed the funny shirt photo.
That’s one way to view President Barack Obama’s announcement that the United States will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Hawaii in 2011.
“I look forward to seeing you all decked out in flowered shirts and grass skirts,” he told the other leaders Sunday.
Since the 21-nation APEC meetings became summits under President Bill Clinton, they’ve followed a tradition of letting the host dictate what guests wear for the official picture.
For the first summit, at Blake Island, Wash., in 1993, Clinton passed out bomber jackets. But over the years, things have gotten more interesting — and lots more colorful. The garb has ranged from Javan batik shirts (Bogor, Indonesia, 1994) to flowing ponchos (Lima, Peru, last year).
The resulting pictures would suggest some leaders enjoy this tradition more than others. Remember President George W. Bush in the poncho?
During this year’s meeting in Singapore, the uniform was silk tunic shirts with mandarin collars, in a choice of red or blue-gray. Obama cheerfully opted for the latter. But since he arrived at the summit a day late and just in time for a gala dinner, there was something of a scramble as the leaders pulled together a special photo session to include him.
Steering APEC to Hawaii was likely a consolation for Obama, who failed to land the 2016 Olympics for Chicago despite flying to Copenhagen last month to lead his hometown’s closing pitch.
Meantime, after Hawaii and its floral shirts, APEC is almost certain to move in the opposite direction, sartorially speaking. Russia’s hosting the summit in 2012 in the eastern city of Vladivostok, where the average November high is just 37 degrees Fahrenheit.
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Also from the picture-is-worth-a-thousand-words department: Obama’s class photo with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Mighty efforts were made to ensure the president and the official head of Myanmar’s government, Prime Minister Gen. Thein Sein, were nowhere near each other. Meaning there was no “Hugo Chavez moment,” as when Obama was photographed greeting the anti-American Venezuelan leader at a summit in Trinidad-Tobago.
When Obama met with 10 leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for a group photograph, the U.S. president stayed far away. Similarly, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton didn’t speak to officials from Myanmar.
The regime in Myanmar, also known as Burma, has long been shunned by Washington as a brutal dictatorship. Obama’s meeting was the first ever by a U.S. president and all 10 ASEAN leaders, and reflected a new carrot-and-stick approach with Myanmar aiming to encourage the release of political prisoners.
It’s a strategy, though, that doesn’t include grip-and-grin pictures.
There were, however, handshakes — of a unique ASEAN kind.
Obama was prevailed upon to join the special “ASEAN handshake,” which has leaders crossing arms across the chest and grasping the hand of the leaders on either side. This accomplished, Obama flashed a wide smile to photographers — but never once made eye contact with the Burmese leader while cameras were in the room.
One of Obama’s national security aides, Ben Rhodes, told reporters Obama raised Myanmar during the closed-door meeting — with Thein Sein sitting just seats away — and again called for freedom of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi, 64, has been detained for 14 of the past 20 years.
“Privately, he said the exact same thing he said publicly,” said Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser.
While journalists were around, though, the leaders smiled for the cameras and their aides ushered the interlopers from the room.
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Obama flew into Singapore a day later than first planned, the schedule for his four-country Asian trip shuffled so he could be at Fort Hood, Texas, for Tuesday’s memorial service for its shooting victims.
The way things worked out, he got here just in time for the big summit meal — but too late for the entertainment.
The gala, “Our World, One World”, was a lighthearted pastiche reflecting Singapore’s polyglot heritage: vaulting Chinese pugilists, swaying Indian dancers and competitive Malay dikir barat singing. There were films reflecting the birth of both APEC and Singapore, a one-time British colony at the tip of the Malay peninsula, and performances by violinist Min Lee and a pair of singers from Singapore’s version of American Idol.
“Nothing avant garde or taxing on the brain,” its producer, impresario Dick Lee told Singapore’s Sunday Times newspaper, “just a joyful celebration of Singapore’s culture.”
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AP White House Correspondent Jennifer Loven and Associated Press writer Charles Hurtzler contributed to this report.
