Kamala's Dilemma: California 2026 or White House 2028
By Romen Basu Borsellino | 05 Mar, 2025

The Golden State may be a golden opportunity — or a risk to Harris's presidential ambitions.

When Kamala Harris ended her Vice Presidential term on January 20th, she could have gone on vacation. Intead, she flew straight to Los Angeles to tour wildfire damage. Checking in on your home state after it’s been through unthinkable tragedy should hardly be viewed as a political move. But in these overly cynical times, one couldn’t help but wonder if the visit was meant to tee up her next up act.

California is one of 37 states with gubernatorial term limits, which means that Governor Gavin Newsom will be replaced in the 2026 midterm elections, two years before Donald Trump’s presidency is supposed to wrap up. The last three governors of the Golden State — Newsom, Jerry Brown, and Arnold Schwarzenegger — have arguably been seen as larger than life figures well equipped to spar with a divisive president. But among the candidates who have announced a run to succeed Newsom as Governor, there seems to be neither a clear front runner nor a towering figure prepared to stick it to Trump. Unless, of course, Kamala Harris decides to run. 

Current CA Attorney General Rob Bonta was expected to run in 2026, which would make him, a Filipino, the state’s first Asian-American governor if elected (the last AAPI candidate with a shot was State Treasurer John Chiang, who lost the 2018 primary to Newsom). Bonta’s recent decision against running surprised many. While his reasoning was unclear, it may have been that he expected Harris to run…and win. Let’s take a look at why Kamala Harris — who was previously a District Attorney for San Francisco, Secretary of State, and US Senator — should and should not run. We’ll start with the cons:

The case against a run:

Demotion: While the state of California could be its own country by nearly any measure, settling for Governor after failing to win the Presidency could seem like a demotion for Harris. To be clear, a politician running for a lesser office after losing a general election for president has certainly happened before. Take Mitt Romney for example, who got elected to the US Senate in 2018, six years after losing to Obama. But Romney had no intention of running for President again. The same can’t be said for Harris. 

Optics: From just an optics perspective, any Governor of California will have a tough time shaking the baggage that the office comes with. Fairly or not, California has a national reputation for crime, natural disaster, homelessness, and a political ideology to the left of the mainstream. Harris would likely be unable to shed the negative association that comes from running the state in time for a presidential campaign.

Timing: Harris is relatively young — at least by Biden and Trump standards — so she would still have plenty of time to run for President. But her best chance to do so may be in 2028, which would likely not be possible if she is in her second year as Governor. A 2028 run would make the most sense for the following reasons:

• President Trump’s already low approval ratings imply that it will be hard for a Republican president to succeed him. 

• Should a Democrat win the Presidency after Trump, they would hold the office for four to eight years, which is a long time for Harris to have to wait to run again.

• No two Democrats have served back to back presidencies since LBJ followed JFK. So should a Democrat win in 2028, Harris would have a hard time winning right after them. 

• For the above reasons, the earliest it may make sense for Harris to run again, if not in 2028, is 12 years later in 2040. She will be 72 years-old by then.

The case for a run:

Hers to lose: None of the current candidates for Governor are particularly well-known across the state. Harris’s name recognition, combined with her proven fundraising experience, would give her a massive advantage towards locking up the nomination. Given California’s political lean, any Democratic nominee is the clear favorite to win the general election. Harris is already the frontrunner to win and she hasn’t even decided if she’s running. That could be hard to walk away from. 

Staying relevant: If Harris wants a future in Democratic politics, she needs to stay relevant. Holding a major position that would keep her name in national headlines is the best way to do that. As mentioned above, her role as Vice President could make any other position short of the Presidency seem like a demotion. But if any single elected office in the United States could still give her the clout she needs, it might be running the nation's largest state by both population and GDP. Not to mention that many felt like Harris was muted in her role as Vice President. The Governorship could actually increase her leadership bonafides. 

Forget the presidency: Kamala Harris is going to have a tough time running for president again no matter what. Many will fault her for losing what they saw as a winnable race against Trump and not want to give her another shot. If her true goal is to serve the American public, she should do so not with a future office in mind, but by seizing her best chance to make an impact at this very moment.

Love him or hate him, Gavin Newsom is a large personality who will leave big shoes to fill when he ends his term and likely plots his own run for President. While a former Vice President running for Governor may be unorthodox, little about Kamala Harris’s time in public service has been conventional, from the barriers she’s broken to the unexpected way in which she became the 2024 Democratic nominee. Whatever she does next is anybody’s guess.