Russia Puts Its Far East in Play to China
By Goldsea Staff | 24 Sep, 2025

Isolation resulting from Putin's Ukraine adventure deepens Russia's dependence on China, accelerating the economic colonization of the vast Russian Far East.

Putin's invasion gained a foothold in 20% of Ukraine but at the cost of deepening Russia's economic isolation and dependence on China for goods, technology, oil revenues, and investments.  China has been the big beneficiary, buying Russian oil well below market prices while growing exports to Russia.  Meanwhile the high cost of maintaining the war has made Russia receptive to rapidly expanding Chinese investments in Russian farmland and mineral extraction.  It has also put Russia firmly in China's orbit as a junior partner in the geopolitical great game against the US.

(Image by Grok)

In fact, over time Russia's growing dependence is clearing a path for China to gain economic dominance over the choicest parts of Siberia and the Russian Far East through financial power and the attendant political influence until the regions become a Chinese economic colony.  This trend appears inevitable and is well supported by economic data and reasonable projections. 

For AI efficiency in analyzing and digesting and presenting extensive data supporting this conclusion, we engaged three reliable chatbots with a series of prompts starting with:

How does China benefit from Putin continuing his war in Ukraine?

That was followed by the prompt: 

Does this increase the likelihood of China colonizing Russia for its farmland and natural resources?

ChatGPT:

China gains several indirect but significant advantages from Putin’s ongoing war in Ukraine, though it also faces some risks. Here are the main benefits:

1. Strategic Distraction of the West

• The war forces the U.S. and Europe to pour money, weapons, and political focus into Ukraine.

• This diverts Western attention and resources away from the Indo-Pacific, where China is challenging U.S. dominance (e.g., over Taiwan, South China Sea).

2. Economic Gains from Discounted Russian Energy

• Sanctions have cut Russia off from many Western buyers, leaving China as a key market for Russian oil, gas, and coal.

• China imports this energy at steep discounts, boosting its energy security and lowering costs for its industries.

3. Strengthened Leverage Over Russia

• Russia’s growing dependence on China (for trade, finance, tech imports, and diplomatic cover) gives Beijing more sway in shaping Moscow’s policies.

• This helps China position itself as Russia’s senior partner in a Eurasian bloc.

4. Weakening of Europe

• The war has strained European economies (especially Germany, long reliant on cheap Russian gas), slowed growth, and created inflationary pressures.

• A weaker, distracted Europe is less capable of countering China on trade, technology, and human rights issues.

5. Testing Ground for Western Resolve

• By watching how NATO and the U.S. respond to Russia, Beijing can assess Western unity, sanctions effectiveness, and military support strategies.

• This offers insights relevant to a potential Taiwan contingency.

6. Soft-Power Opportunity

• China tries to present itself as a “peace advocate” to the Global South, contrasting with Western military support for Ukraine.

• This feeds into its narrative of being a leader of the non-Western world.

Risks for China:

• Overdependence on a weak Russia could drag China into instability.

• Secondary sanctions could hurt Chinese banks and companies.

• Prolonged war disrupts global trade and supply chains, which China also relies on.

👉 In short: China benefits from cheap energy, increased leverage over Russia, a distracted West, and weakened Europe—while using the war as a strategic laboratory. But the longer it drags on, the more China must balance those gains against the risks of economic blowback and global instability.

“Colonizing” might be too strong a word—China is unlikely to outright annex Russian territory—but Putin’s war has undeniably deepened Russia’s dependence on Beijing in ways that make Chinese economic and demographic influence in Siberia and the Russian Far East much more plausible. Here’s how it plays out:

Why China Gains Leverage Over Russian Territory

1. Demographic Imbalance

   • The Russian Far East (vast land, rich in timber, water, oil, gas, and minerals) is sparsely populated—only about 6 million people across an area larger than India.

   • Just across the border, in northeastern China, there are 100+ million people. This imbalance has already driven informal migration and cross-border settlement.

2. Economic Dependence

   • Russia, cut off from Western capital and markets, increasingly relies on China for investment, infrastructure, technology, and buyers of its raw materials.

   • This dependence gives Beijing leverage to demand long-term land leases, resource concessions, and infrastructure projects (railways, pipelines) that deepen Chinese control.

3. Energy and Farmland Needs

   • China’s long-term challenge is securing food and energy for 1.4 billion people. Russia has both in abundance.

   • With sanctions limiting Russia’s bargaining power, China can negotiate sweetheart deals for farmland leases and exclusive mining rights.

4. Soft “Colonization” Mechanisms

   • Instead of conquest, Beijing uses migration, investment, joint ventures, and infrastructure integration (part of its Belt and Road strategy) to entrench itself.

   • Over decades, this can lead to a de facto Chinese sphere of influence in Eastern Russia.

Constraints on Overt Colonization

• Russian Nationalism: Even a weakened Kremlin would fiercely resist formal land loss—Russian elites remember China’s territorial claims.

• Military Risk: Russia still has nuclear weapons, making overt annexation impossible without catastrophic escalation.

• Reputation: Open colonization would undermine China’s “anti-imperialist” narrative, damaging relations with the Global South.

The Likely Scenario

Rather than marching in, China benefits more from a “creeping takeover”:

• Buying land and resources under long-term leases.

• Expanding Chinese business ownership and migration in border towns.

• Locking Russia into infrastructure that points east, not west.

• Gradually making Moscow dependent on Beijing’s goodwill.

If Putin’s war continues and Russia weakens further, China won’t need to conquer anything—it will own the place economically.

Great — let’s project how China’s “creeping colonization” of Russia might look over time if the Ukraine war drags on and keeps Russia dependent:

10-Year Horizon (mid-2030s)

• Energy Ties Cemented: China becomes the primary buyer of Russian oil, gas, and coal. New pipelines and power lines point east instead of west.

• Land Leases Expand: Chinese agribusinesses lease large tracts of farmland in Siberia and the Russian Far East for soybeans, corn, and livestock feed.

• Migration Flows: Tens of thousands of Chinese workers and traders settle in Russian border regions, building communities that cater to cross-border commerce.

• Infrastructure Control: Chinese firms dominate construction of highways, railroads, and logistics hubs, effectively plugging Siberia into China’s economic orbit.

20-Year Horizon (mid-2040s)

• Economic Absorption: Siberia functions as China’s “resource frontier.” Chinese banks and state firms control much of the energy, mining, and timber industries.

• Demographic Imprint: Entire Russian towns near the border have majority Chinese-speaking populations. Russian authorities tolerate it because the taxes and jobs depend on Chinese business.

• Political Leverage: Beijing quietly influences regional governors and oligarchs in the Russian Far East, pressuring Moscow to approve Chinese-friendly policies.

• Cultural Integration: Chinese schools, hospitals, and media appear in Russian towns, serving migrant communities but also extending soft power.

50-Year Horizon (mid-2070s)

• De Facto Dependency: If Russia remains weak, the Far East could resemble a Chinese economic colony:

  • Natural resources extracted almost entirely for China.

  • Russian officials reduced to figureheads for Chinese-backed enterprises.

  • Locals using yuan as often as rubles.

• Population Shift: Hundreds of thousands (perhaps millions) of Chinese citizens or their descendants live permanently in Russia.

• Strategic Quiet: Formal annexation never happens—nuclear deterrence and nationalism prevent it—but Beijing achieves full control over the land’s resources and labor without firing a shot.

• Global Standing: China presents itself not as an occupier but as the “partner who kept Russia afloat,” framing its dominance as benevolent.

Bottom Line

• In 10 years, China is Russia’s indispensable customer and builder.

• In 20 years, China is the quiet landlord of Siberia.

• In 50 years, the Russian Far East may be Russian in name only, functionally absorbed into China’s economic sphere.

Would you like me to also compare this scenario to historical precedents (like the U.S. in Latin America, or Britain in Egypt) to show how powers have pulled off “colonization without conquest”?

**

Gemini:

China's position on the war in Ukraine has been one of "pro-Russian neutrality," and it has derived significant benefits from the continuation of the conflict.1 While not a formal ally of Russia, China has used the war to advance its own economic and geopolitical interests.

Here are some of the key ways China benefits from the ongoing war:

1. Economic Advantages:

• Discounted Energy: As Western sanctions have limited Russia's access to European energy markets, China has become a primary buyer of Russian oil and gas, often at discounted prices.2 This helps China secure its energy supply and fuels its economy.3

• Increased Trade: China has become a crucial economic lifeline for Russia.4 Russian imports from China have surged, providing Moscow with industrial, consumer, and dual-use technology products.5 This has strengthened the economic relationship between the two countries, but in a highly asymmetric way, with Russia becoming increasingly dependent on China.6

• Internationalization of the Yuan: Russia's isolation from the Western financial system has led it to increase its reliance on the Chinese yuan for trade and financial transactions.7 This has accelerated China's goal of internationalizing its currency and reducing the dominance of the US dollar.

2. Geopolitical and Strategic Gains:

• Distraction and Weakening of the West: The war in Ukraine has diverted the attention and resources of the United States and its European allies.8 This allows China to focus on its own strategic goals, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, without facing the full force of Western pressure. The conflict has also exposed divisions within the West and demonstrated the limits of its collective power.

• Strengthening its Partnership with Russia: The war has pushed Russia further into China's strategic orbit.9 Russia, isolated and in need of support, has become a "junior partner" to China.10 This strengthens China's position in its rivalry with the US and allows for greater cooperation on military and diplomatic fronts.

• Lessons for a Potential Conflict over Taiwan: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been closely studying the war in Ukraine to draw lessons for a potential conflict over Taiwan. By observing the effectiveness of various military tactics, the impact of Western sanctions, and the response of international alliances, China is gaining valuable insights that could inform its own military planning.

• Counterbalancing U.S. Influence: China and Russia share a common interest in challenging what they view as U.S. and NATO hegemony.11 The war has allowed them to deepen their cooperation in international forums like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and to present a united front against the existing U.S.-led liberal international order.12

While China has been careful to maintain a public stance of neutrality and avoid direct military assistance to Russia, its economic and diplomatic support has been critical in sustaining Russia's war effort.13 By doing so, China is not only benefiting from the immediate economic and strategic opportunities but is also working toward its long-term vision of a multipolar world order less dominated by the United States.

The term "economic colonization" captures the essence of what's happening more accurately than a military invasion. It describes a situation where one country, without formally taking control, gains significant control over another's economy and resources.

Here's a likely progression of this scenario in Siberia and the Russian Far East over the next 50 years:

Phase 1: Deepening Asymmetry (The Next 5-10 Years)

• Russia's Increasing Dependence: Russia's economy will continue to pivot east. Sanctions will remain, and its energy and resource exports will be almost exclusively tied to China. This will give Beijing immense leverage in price negotiations for oil, gas, timber, and other raw materials. Russia will have little choice but to accept China's terms.

• Infrastructure and Investment: China will continue to finance and build major infrastructure projects in Siberia and the Far East, such as the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, new railroads, and ports. These projects will be designed to serve China's needs, creating an infrastructure network that ties the region's economy to China's. Chinese companies will likely be the primary contractors and financiers, using their own labor and materials.

• Expansion of Chinese Businesses: Chinese state-owned and private companies will expand their presence in key sectors like agriculture, timber, and mineral extraction. They will lease vast tracts of farmland and forests, and their businesses will become major employers in a region that has seen a decline in its own population.

Phase 2: Economic Integration and Control (10-25 Years from Now)

• Yuan Dominance: The Chinese yuan will likely replace the Russian ruble as the de facto currency for much of the trade in the Russian Far East.1 Local Russian businesses and individuals will increasingly use the yuan for transactions, and Russian banks will be forced to accommodate this shift.2 This will give China financial leverage over the regional economy.

• Supply Chain Control: China will establish fully integrated supply chains, from resource extraction in Siberia to processing and manufacturing within its own borders. Russian companies will become junior partners in these ventures, providing raw materials while China controls the more profitable stages of production and technology.

• Demographic Shift and Social Tensions: While a mass migration is unlikely, a steady, gradual increase in the Chinese population—driven by business owners, managers, and skilled workers—will occur in key economic hubs. This will likely lead to social and cultural tensions with the local Russian population, who may feel their region is being "taken over." This is a key concern for the Kremlin and a point of friction that Russia will try to manage.

Phase 3: The "De Facto" Chinese Sphere of Influence (25-50 Years from Now)

• Russian Sovereignty Under Question: By this stage, Siberia and the Russian Far East will be so economically entwined with China that Moscow's political control will be, in some ways, nominal. While Russia will still have formal sovereignty and a military presence, Beijing's economic influence will be paramount. Any major economic or political decision in the region will require Chinese approval or, at the very least, consideration of its interests.

• Resource and Food Security for China: China will have effectively secured its long-term resource and food security from Siberia's vast natural endowments. The region will function as a resource-rich hinterland for the world's largest economy.3

• Limited Russian Recourse: Russia's political and economic options will be severely limited. Its economy will be too dependent on China to risk a break. The military option will be off the table, as China's economic ties will have provided it with a more subtle and powerful form of control. This will represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power, with Russia fully accepting its role as a subordinate partner.4

In this scenario, China doesn't need to fire a single shot. It will achieve its strategic goals through economic power, leveraging Russia's isolation to gain access to resources and to further its geopolitical agenda of creating a multipolar world less reliant on the West.5